Noranda Income Fund Unit NNDIF

Earnings out

[Scotch12]

https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!NIF-3212565/C/NIF

Big loss because of an unrealized derivative loss. Revenue was way up. The management and Board are beyond shameful and that is putting it nicely. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.5 million compared to $17.4 million last year.

[Scotch12]

They appeared to change the link. Here is the new one. https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!NIF-3212568/C/NIF Management are not the brightest people in the financial world.

[schocor]

not currently an owner of noranda.  these earnings are not very mich to look at. i believe the future looks better than the last quarter with a tc rise and the north american premium for physical zinc. our energy needs are met and that kind of thing is in short sipply in the zinc refining industry.  glencore sure manages to suck any profit out of this comoany with their derivites

[ZincDink]

The hedge loss was forseeable, though I didn't want to believe it could be so high. The rest is a WTF? Significant drop in production, project overdue, just pure garbage. I will go through it more closely, but why is SGA up 10 percent with less sales to show for it? Why the drop in recovery rate? Even with poor TC, they should have done better on actual numbers outside of the hedge. You can

[rjb1954]

The CFO is obviously incompetent and should resign.

[Bigbird9999]

Focus on the EBITDA which gets rid of all the accounting fluff and is essentialy the free cash flow.. The huge hedge losses will zero out over time.   As expected the EBITDA for 21 was nil, i.e. essentialy break even.  The planets are aligned for what could be a very good 2022.  LME futures are >$3400 ($1.50) and predicted to hold or go higher vs. $1.36 average in 21. 

[schocor]

i listened to the call too. couple tskeaways :  1) they mentioned how their operations are effectively fixed cost; more through put pays condiderably more  2) they mentioned profuction offtime in jan and feb of 2022 3) they mentioned dupply chain issues were eating into some of their north american physical zinc premium  4) these noranda executive guys just never sound poditive

[ljp0101]

Your spot TCRCs are too high. MB has 125-140/t in mid-Feb with mixed outlook commentary due to low China smelter profitability: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/international-zinc-association-2022-to-focus-on-zinc-smelters-output-cuts Q4 was an operational disaster with the terrible recovery rate and throughput plus the expansion cost overruns. I also get a vibe that working capital is or

[Bigbird9999]

Depends on which expert is doing the talking.  Most of the industry think the benchmark will settle somewhere around $190 - $200.  Open markets has the China TC at $85 in Nov, $140 in Dec and $170 in Jan.  It appears to be still going up but who knows what will happen with the shooting and sanctions that are now unfolding.  In 2019 China spot averaged >$250.  2020 TC

[JasonBilly]

I'm only still here because you're still here, lol. If I haven't thanked you for your informed and informative posts over the years I'll do so now. Thank you. And I won't blame you if this still goes a**e end up. As prvieously mentioned we all have to take responsibilty for our own decisions. Good luck to all. jb

[rjb1954]

BB, Thank you once again for your thoughts & insight. Very helpful. You should be on the BOD. WRT the last qtr report, and the huge loss from derivatives, what are the chances that this loss was contrived as a way of siphoning profits out of NIF through the back door by you-know-who. I would love to know if you-know-who was a couinter-party to NIF`s derivative trades.

[ZincDink]

The derrivative loss was forseeable since NIF hedges zinc. They have reported huge hedge gains in the past when zinc prices crashed and in theory, it should be close to a zero sum game. However, it does seem at times the gains are smaller than expected while the losses are larger than anticipated. Definite costs to hedge and its probably a service offered by GC.

[Eric1212]

I would vote FOR Bigbird9999 if his name was on the list. I did talk to him in person and i do believe he would fit. Even if his french is far away, i did understand it when we did meet.