Post by
ZincDink on Feb 13, 2023 2:11pm
The EBITDA on 5 year plan seems tad low
On page G22, you can see the EBITDA projected for the next 5 years. Roughly looks like it will average 100 M$ per year...thats pretty darn good.
Here is the problem, they reported a 40 M$ EBITDA in last quarter...when production was down 20 percent!.
I think EBITDA will average closer to 200 M$ than 100 M$ over next 5 years.
This is going to be a cash cow.
The calculations used for determining value are all flawed since the plant value has been impaired so many times, that at the rate it was going, the plant would soon have a negative valuation.
I believe we will also end up with a 35 - 55 M$ derivate gain for the year from hedging. I believe in the past they did realize a derivative gain of ~ 30 M$ (probably a few years of realized derivative losses prior). So why not earmark this for the cell house repair?
We got to get rid of this board.