Novus Energy Inc NOVUF

Novus vs Legacy

[ardvark11]

At year end Novus production was:

 

3,470 bopd

760 boepd gas

so if you value gas at 0$ and oil at 100,000 per barrel you get $347,000,000

minus debt 80,000,000

plus options 15,000,000

divided by diluted shares about 210,000,000

equals 1.34 per share

 

But the gas is getting about $20 per boe so even if you vaue it a 25,000 per bopd you add another 10 cents per share.  And then all the new drilling done in Q1 is for free also.

[Pokerchamp]

From their recent news release: Based on field estimates, average production for the first quarter of 2013 was 4,090 boe/d. The longer the deal takes to close, the higher production grows and the greater the buyout price.

[counterintuitive247]

There is no comparison on the Legacy deal.  The best metrics to use is the cutpick metrics bought by Crescent Point.  $425 million for 5600 boe (65% light oil).  Thats $75892 per boe. So 4090 * 76000 = (310,840,000 - 80,000,000) / 210,000,000 = $1.10/shr  .  So Novus says their 75% oil lets give them a $80000 premium per boe. So that makes the price 1.17/shr

[veronikagermany]

I think you should count  in your analysis  the reserves  too.

[counterintuitive247]

Yes I included that in my assumtions heres a table for comparision.  Seems pretty bang on to me.     CutPick Novus   Debt  $     83,000,000.00  $  80,000,000.00   Assets Provost Viking Dodsland Viking   Production, BOE/d 5600

[ardvark11]

Not so sure that the calcs are right but maybe. Here's what I get but maybe I am missing something...   I get cutpick = 3640 oil and 1960 gas at 4to1 pricing for oil so cost equivelent to 3640+.25x1960 = 4140 bopd so purchase price is 345 plus debt take over of 84 or 431 million and 104,100 per bpd oil equivenlent. So novus has 3360+840x.25 = 3570 bopd cost equivelent so you

[ardvark11]

Sorry,  I got it really wrong: cutpick = 2912 oil and 1568 gas at 4to1 pricing for oil so cost equivelent to2912+.25x1568 =3304 bopd so purchase price is 345 plus debt take over of 84 or 431 million and 130,450 per bpd oil equivenlent. So novus has 3360+840x.25 = 3570 bopd cost equivelent so you would get:   466 value 15. options -80 debt 306/210 = 1.91 per share

[sherbrooke1]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[ardvark11]

sherbrook,  I got the oil/gas mix off but pulled up the datasheet and it is correct now.  the deal would put novus much higher.  the purchase price is acreative and includes profit.