Post by
neosceptic on Mar 09, 2021 10:59am
2021 is transitional year
That is why the swings up and down for Li companies (and prices for Li) will be absolutely normal.
Nearly every forecast showed small increase of EV demand in 2021 compare to 2019 (2020 is nearly write off), but sharp increase (practically jump) in 2022. Steep, but more gradual increase till 2025 with consequent jump.
2025 explained by necessity for full transition in Europe (2030 is big year, when EV become mandatory in few key states).
2022 growth is more organic: changing of customer preferences, VW large scale entrance, private initiatives (Amazon EV transition, EV car sharing), and Baiden's policies implementation (buidling charging station and replacement of 600K gov't fleet with EV).
Of course NLC can "resist" temporary declines with project advancement. Without it, we can expect wide range, from panic of new oversupply ($1.50) to panic of shortage ($4.50), but we, probably, will see smaler fluctuations with gradual rise of NLC shares with each stage completed.
When EV transprtation gain true momentum, Li market will likely to resembel oil market now with its floors, ceilings, and correlation with economic cycles.
I will exersise patience now. I do not worry about Argentina (at least for now), they do have problems, but Argentina is not Venezuela. Moreover, full blown collapse of Venezuela's economy after nationalisations of oil industry must teach some kind of a lesson for any Chavez-wanna-bee...
Comment by
Username1 on Mar 10, 2021 8:51pm
The left is who they are, no learning curve. The only thing that keeps the Chaves in check is the looming democratic elections, thankfully Argentina's constitution cedes control of minerals to the states.