Post by
MyHoneyPot on Sep 22, 2023 10:23am
Approximately 26000 Condensate = 82,000 boe/day NVA
In Q3 it looks like NVA will produce somewhere around 26000 boe/day of condensate.
Price
It looks like the average oil price in Q3 will be around 83 WTI dollars, now it was 73 WTI dollars in Q3. So the price of oil is up 14% from Q2. So condensate may sell for aroun 108 boe Can in Q3.
Production
Production in Q3 will be approx 82,000 boe day and increase of 15.4 %
If the price of condensate is up 14% from Q2 that would make Q3 condensate sell for about $94.92 Can * 1.14 = $108 Canadian.
So 26,300 boe/day * 108 Canadian *91 days = 258.5 million Sales for cash flow in Q3 Condensate.
In Q2 of 2023
Condensate = 190 million from sales Gas = 77 million NGLs = 15 million
Q3 might look like this 15% higher production that Q2 (production (1.15 X), Price Condy (1.14X) )
Condensate = 250 million, Gas = 88 million NGLS = 17.5
Sales revenue = (355.5 million Q3) - compared - (282 million in Q2) --- (26% increase)
So in Q3 2023 NVA should have 26% increase in sales, with the assumpition that GAS and NGLS stay the same price in Q2 projected into Q3.
NVA should be an extremly stong buy with Q4 prices being even higher then 83 average WTI price in Q3.
IMHO