TSX:NVA - Post Discussion
Post by
Carjack on Mar 07, 2024 6:49pm
Nat gas weekly
Market Highlights:
(For the week ending Wednesday, March 6, 2024)
Prices
Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.
- Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 3 cents from $1.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.66/MMBtu yesterday.
- Henry Hub futures price: The price of the April 2024 NYMEX contract increased 4.4 cents, from $1.885/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.929/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2024 through March 2025 futures contracts climbed 1.2 cents to $2.829/MMBtu.
- Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, February 28 to Wednesday, March 6). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 51 cents at Algonquin Citygate to an increase of 81 cents at PG&E Citygate.
- Prices in the Northeast fell as warmer weather in the region reduced space heating demand. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell 51 cents from $2.46/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.95/MMBtu yesterday. In the Boston Area, average temperatures rose 4°F this week, leading to 165 heating degree days (HDD), 28 HDDs fewer than the previous report week. Rising temperatures led to a 14.0% decrease (0.2 Bcf/d) in residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption in New England. Similar temperature changes occurred in the Appalachia region, leading to a 21.8% (0.9 Bcf/d) decrease in natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector. Temperatures in the Pittsburgh Arearose 6°F this report week, resulting in 106 HDDs, 39 HDDs fewer than the previous report week.
- The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 22 cents this report week, from $0.43/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.21/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub price fell to an intraweek low of -$0.55/MMBtu on Tuesday, as the El Paso Natural Gas Company increased maintenance activities on its North Mainline pipeline and Dutch F station, which carry natural gas westbound into California. The Waha Hub traded $1.45 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.20 below the Henry Hub price. The Waha price Wednesday was $1.16 below the March 2023 average price.
- Prices on the West Coast rose this report week due to lower temperatures. The price at the PG&E Citygate, which serves Northern California, rose 81 cents to $3.02/MMBtu this report week. The price at the Opal Hub in southwest Wyoming, which supplies natural gas to both the Northern California and Pacific Northwest markets, rose 39 cents from last Wednesday to $1.89/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the San Jose Area fell 2°F this report week, leading to 69 HDDs, up 16 HDDs from the previous report week. Total consumption in California rose 2.1% (0.1 Bcf/d), with almost all of that increase coming from the residential and commercial sectors. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 38 cents from $1.49/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.87/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the Seattle City Area fell 5°F this report week, which led to 173 HDDs, 32 HDDs more than the previous report week and 31 HDDs above normal levels. Total natural gas consumption rose 10.7% (0.3 Bcf/d) in the Pacific Northwest, driven by higher residential and commercial sector consumption.
- International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 10 cents to a weekly average of $8.36/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands rose 74 cents to a weekly average of $8.38/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 8, 2023), the prices were $14.21/MMBtu in East Asia and $13.66/MMBtu at TTF.
- Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 7 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.46/MMBtu for the week ending March 6. Ethane prices rose 2%, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel rose 19%, reducing the ethane premium to natural gas by 11%. The ethylene spot price fell 1% and the ethylene premium to ethane fell 2% this report week. Average weekly propane prices fell 3%, while Brent crude oil prices rose 2%, increasing the propane discount to crude oil by 14%. Normal butane prices fell 3%, while isobutane prices and natural gasoline prices each rose 2% this report week.
Top
Supply and Demand
- Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1.9% (2.0 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 1.2% (1.2 Bcf/d) to average 101.9 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 16.0% (0.7 Bcf/d) from last week. Dry gas production fell by 2.3% (0.8 Bcf/d) in Appalachia, 2.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) in South Texas, and 1.7% (0.2 Bcf/d) in the Mid-Continent region compared to the previous report week. Multiple producers have announced production curtailments for the next few months due to low natural gas prices.
- Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 4.1% (3.5 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 9.4% (2.8 Bcf/d), as warmer weather continued this week in the Northeast and Atlantic Coast, reducing space heating needs. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 1.4% (0.4 Bcf/d), and industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 8.6% (0.5 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.4 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d lower than last week.
Top
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals fell by 3.1% (0.4 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.4 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas fell 6.7% (0.3 Bcf/d), while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana fell 2.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 8.8 Bcf/d. Ongoing repairs at Freeport LNG in Freeport, Texas resulting from the January 2024 winter storm have reduced sendout capacity from the facility. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d.
- Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-three LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi; three from Calcasieu Pass; two from Cove Point; and one each from Elba Island and Freeport) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 87 Bcf departed the United States between February 29 and March 6, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
Top
Rig Count
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, February 27, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig to 119 rigs. The Haynesville dropped two rigs, and the Marcellus added one rig. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 3 rigs to 506 rigs. The Cana Woodford and Permian both added one rig, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, increased by 3 rigs and stands at 629.
Top
Storage
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 40 Bcf for the week ending March 1, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 93 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 72 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,334 Bcf, which is 551 Bcf (31%) more than the five-year average and 280 Bcf (14%) more than last year at this time.
- According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 30 Bcf to 68 Bcf, with a median estimate of 38 Bcf.
- The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 20% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 5.0 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 2,184 Bcf on March 31, which is 551 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.
Be the first to comment on this post