TSX:NVA - Post Discussion
Post by
Carjack on Mar 16, 2024 4:43pm
Nat gas weekly
Market Highlights:
(For the week ending Wednesday, March 13, 2024)
Prices
Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.
- Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 42 cents from $1.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.24/MMBtu yesterday, the lowest price in inflation-adjusted terms since at least 1997.
- Henry Hub futures price: The price of the April 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 27.1 cents, from $1.929/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.658/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2024 through March 2025 futures contracts declined 14.2 cents to $2.688/MMBtu.
- Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at all major hubs this report week (Wednesday, March 6 to Wednesday, March 13).
- Prices in the Northeast decreased this report week driven by lower natural gas consumption. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down 75 cents from $1.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.20/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 47 cents from $1.60/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.13/MMBtu yesterday. Total natural gas consumption in the Northeast decreased 3.0% (0.6 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) week over week, driven by a 4.6% (0.4 Bcf/d) decrease in the residential and commercial sector, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Temperatures in the Boston Area remained above average this week at 42°F, or 5°F higher than normal and similar to last week’s average temperatures. Similarly, in New York-Central Park Area, average temperatures were 8°F higher than normal at 49°F.
- Prices in the West decreased this week as natural gas consumption fell in response to rising temperatures. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 74 cents from $2.53/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.79/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, fell 37 cents from $1.87/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.50/MMBtu yesterday. Consumption of natural gas in the residential and commercial sector in the Western region declined 6.0% (0.3 Bcf/d). Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, were unchanged this week at 56°F. Temperatures in the Seattle City Areaincreased 6°F to average 46°F.
- The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 46 cents this report week, from $0.21/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$0.25/MMBtu yesterday, as supply in the basin exceeded in-region demand and the capacity to ship natural gas out of the region. The Waha Hub traded $1.49 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, similar to last Wednesday when it traded $1.45 below the Henry Hub price. The price at the Waha Hub first fell below zero on Monday of this report week as capacity to ship natural gas out of the region on El Paso Natural Gas Company’s pipeline system remained constrained by ongoing maintenance.
- International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 9 cents to a weekly average of $8.45/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 23 cents to a weekly average of $8.15/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 15, 2023), the prices were $14.22/MMBtu in East Asia and $14.57/MMBtu at TTF.
- Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 31 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.15/MMBtu for the week ending March 13. Ethane prices fell 6%, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel fell 14%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 2%. The ethylene spot price fell 1%, and the ethylene premium to ethane rose 2% this report week. Propane prices fell 7%, while Brent crude prices fell 2%, increasing the propane discount to crude oil by 5%. Normal butane prices fell 5%, isobutane prices increased 1%, and natural gasoline prices remained relatively unchanged this report week.
Top
Supply and Demand
- Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 101.6 Bcf/d, about 4 Bcf/d lower than the record high set in December 2023, and average net imports from Canada increased by 2.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week. On March 12, CNX Resources announced that it will delay completion activities on some upcoming wells, following recent announcements from Chesapeake Energy, EQT Corporation, and other companies that they would be curtailing production until market conditions change.
- Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 2.1% (1.7 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, driven by reduced heating demand as a result of above-average temperatures in most of the country. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 4.0% (1.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 1.6% (0.5 Bcf/d) week over week, and industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.5% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 1.9% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.3 Bcf/d, or 0.2 Bcf/d lower than last week.
Top
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased by 1.3% (0.2 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas fell 10.2% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 3.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased 1.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 8.9 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d.
- Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Freeport; three from Calcasieu Pass; and two from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 94 Bcf departed the United States between March 7 and March 13, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
- Vessels arriving at U.S. ports: One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between March 7 and March 13, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
Top
Rig Count
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, March 5, the natural gas rig count decreased by 4 to 115 rigs. The Haynesville dropped three rigs, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 2 to 504 rigs. The Cana Woodford dropped one rig, and the Permian dropped two rigs. One rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, decreased by 7 and now stands at 622 rigs.
Top
Storage
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 9 Bcf for the week ending March 8, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 87 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 65 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,325 Bcf, which is 629 Bcf (37%) more than the five-year average and 336 Bcf (17%) more than last year at this time.
- According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 20 Bcf to net injections of 29 Bcf, with a median estimate of net withdrawals of 4 Bcf.
- The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 24% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 2.7 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 2,262 Bcf on March 31, which is 629 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.
Be the first to comment on this post