Newstrike Brands Ltd NWKRF

Summary of RBC Evaluation on HIP as of Jan 15, 2019

[quinlash]

Good Morning Shareholders.  Given the recent ramp up I’m sure there are many of you nervously watching the SP and waiting for the next move.  For those who have not done much in regards of DD I thought it would be worthwhile to share today’s RBC review of NewStrike so that you may make a more informed decision as to what to do with your investment. 
 
Below is the good, bad and ugly of the review.  Now, before you look at any of this and thing, wow, this doesn’t look good, be sure to do your own DD and compare these results to the major players in the MJ sector.   I can assure you that the financial health and ROI from these levels dwarf that of Aurora and Canopy (my other previous plays and considerations for 2019). 
 
Ideally other shareholders on this board could help out by posting their own DD research from sources other than RBC (assuming I didn’t miss something here you wanted to see…)
 
To Summarize again as to why I went with HIP over ACB and WEED… the ROI on HIP from the 52 weeks high (I used .84 not $3.20) and it’s current SP was much higher than that of ACB and WEED.  When looking at ACB and WEED I believe I used $9 for ACB and something like $50 for WEED (Prices that held for more than 30 days without being ran up on hype).  Newstrike’s Financial Health also has a better review than that of ACB and WEED (yes, check it out yourself)
 
For my 2019 investments my goal was first.. to minimize risk / not to lose money, secondly was to give myself the best opportunity for a return that would beat anything that the bank could provide had I invested in a mutual fund or any other traditional investment, therefore a return of 10% or better (at a minimum by year end) and lastly, one that had a strong potential of bringing in big return. 
 
The ROI on HIP still looks very strong at these levels from those potential returns I see on ACB and WEED.  Now, I could certainly be wrong and maybe one of those companies far exceed their highs of last year but that happening is just a guess / gamble.  I do not invest on hopes and guesses, I use the numbers and decide from there.  If there is a wildcard play (like HIP being bought out) and two of my potential investments look even for risk/reward I tend to go with the one with the wildcard as it does provide a potential return but a wildcard is not something I count on solely for investing.
 
Currently we are trading under the 200 Day Simple Moving Average of .66 for NewStrike.  You can look at that number as being a sell target if you bearish on the stock and looking to exit or you could look at it as a minimum ROI / long term support level if you are bullish.  Just keep in mind that lots can change over time on the markets and SP must be expected to move so try to do your own research and make longer term plans rather than panicked knee-jerk decisions based on one day/week/month of trading, its really the only way you can win on the markets.
 
After reviewing all of this I hope it helps a few of you make a more informed decision about buying, selling, or your day-trade plays.
 
 
Fair Value 0.89 CAD
Last price as of Jan 14, 20190 .57 CAD
Street Conesus 1.5 (Strong Buy)
One Year Price Projection = $2.20 -> $2.30
(little disclaimer here.. these projections were also in place for most of last year so I am not 100% how the projection is calculated.  I am investing based on 52 week highs, trends etc, not so much the projection numbers)
 
Quantitative Valuation = Under Valued
Intended to represent Morningstar's estimate of the per share dollar amount that a company's equity is worth today. Morningstar calculates the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate using a statistical model derived from the Fair Value Estimate Morningstar's equity analysts assign to companies. Valuation compares the Quantitative Fair Value to the actual price of the company. A company with a stock price trading below the Quantitative Fair Value is considered relatively inexpensive. If the stock price is greater than the Quantitative Fair Value, the company is considered relatively expensive. This means the higher the rating, the greater the buying opportunity.
 

Quantitative Uncertainty = Very High

Intended to represent Morningstar's level of uncertainty about the accuracy of the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate. Generally, the lower the Quantitative Uncertainty, the narrower the potential range of outcomes for that particular company. The rating is expressed as Low, Medium, High, Very High, and Extreme.

 

Financial Health = Strong

Intended to reflect the probability that a firm will face financial distress in the near future. The calculation uses a predictive model designed to anticipate when a company may default on its financial obligations. The rating is expressed as Weak, Moderate, or Strong.

[mozzarella]

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[quinlash]

Meant to have it out at least a half hour before trading started in case it helped someone but I slept in this morning and the dogs are being a PITA.. 

[EagerBeaver1972]

The RBC valuation is actually quite promising. We all know there is risk, but it gets lessened everyday. Now it is just earnings and expansions, and pray god some M&A

[quinlash]

Yes, I tend to agree and have to temper myself from crossing over the line and sounding like a pumper (sorry, I know I must have done it at some point..)  anyhow.. another thing I have hearing in the news and considering in regards to the MJ sector and HIP...  warnings have been issued in regards to earnings for ACB and WEED.. this is due to their next QTR report not containing much in

[SpecialJK]

Looked back at Q3 2018, they released the numbers 39 days after the Quarter ended ( which was earlier than expected, and also one of the first of the big players). If they release the Financials for Q4 the same number of day after the quarter, than it would be Feb 8th.. the sooner the better.. 

[quinlash]

True, but that was not exactly what i was referring to.. their next QTR report will cover a period starting just days post-legalization which means the report will be FULLY LOADED with provincial sales numbers...  and they sold out... give that some thought ;)    With guidance being provided on the big players a small player like HIP coming out and smoking the average increase in