Newport Exploration Ltd NWXPF

A little analysis on the Income Statement

[JayBanks]

Just to run some numbers for the gang:

AUD-CAD: 2,136,958 x .92 = 1,966,001.36 (CAD)

Shares-Dividend Payout: 105,579,874 x .02 = 2,111,597.48

Income-Payout: 1,966,001.36 - 2,111,597.48 = (145,596.12)

As we can see we are still falling a bit short of supporting the dividend on the royalty. (Not taking into consideration the minimal corporate costs)

Hopefully the new wells going into production become accretive soonish but I expect it more in 2 quarters more than the next Q. I would also like/expect to see oil sit in the $75-80 range rather than the 68ish we are currently sitting at.

If you are investing it this, I strongly encourage a stop-loss or trailing stop-loss. I finally set mine at .425 after getting in at .40, if the price gets up to .50 I will likely up the stop-loss at .44 or .45.

Not trying to be negative, just realistic, overall I'm invested because I'm active, positive on the royalty outlook for the short-medium term, can monitor fairly closely and I feel I can make a solid return here. With a dividend yeild this high there are lots of red flags and everyone should be realistic about your expectations and be aware of what your getting into with this name.

[jsnfernley]

I think you should look at Beach Energy's quarterly reports for just how bad the decline in production from the Western Flank is.  The next one will be out in about 40 days.  The 4Q production was down 37% from the prior year, regardless of what your blue chip management told you. If the recommendations from the last 43-101 on Chu Chua are followed, it will probably cost in excess

[JayBanks]

Can you link us to the last few and the one that comes out in about a month please?

[jsnfernley]

Can I?  Yes.  Will I?  No. You can do a search for Beach Energy.  Find it and look under ASX Accouncements under Investor Centre.  Find the 4th quarter reports (Quarterly Report for the period ended...) for the last two years, this will give you the last Q and FY numbers. Here are some production numbers: Western Flank Oil: FY19 Q1  1,120 kkbl FY19 Q4  1,459