Oncolytics Biotech Inc ONCY

Merck USA (MSD) acquires Phase 2 biotech for US$ 10.8 Bln.

[Noteable]

April 16 (Reuters) - Merck & Co has agreed to acquire Prometheus Biosciences Inc. for about $10.8 billion to bolster the company's presence in immunology, the companies said on Sunday, which further supports the long-standing position that Big Pharma is seeking to acquire "bolt-on" assets that average around US$10 Billion for 2023, at a time when Big Pharma is facing an omenus patent cliff that will mainly be addressed by further M&A activities, as outlined in my earlier posts. 

And as earlier posted on the US$28 Bilion "bolt-on" acquistion of Horizon by Amgen, the FTC will continue to have capacity issues which may preclude this as well as Pfizer's US$43 Billion proposed acquition of Seagen from closing in a timely fashion, if at all, as seen with Illumina's attempt at taking over Grail.

Conseqquently, Big Pharma will be increasingly moving on Phase 2 biotech assets in the US$ 10 -15 Billion range, as witnessed by Merck's announced acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences, thus making ONCY's Phase 3 ready pelareorep a well positioned biotech asset for a similar take-over in this referenced acquisition valuation range.

Thus Pfizer remains remains an interested player for what ONCY has to offer.

https://www.prometheusbiosciences.com/pipeline/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/merck-late-stage-talks-acquire-prometheus-biosciences-wsj-2023-04-16/

[Noteable]

And like some recent acquisitions of next generation biotech assets that Big Pharma companies are making, ONCY provides a powerful precision medicine platform with pelareorep that leverages this proprietary technology to translate complex and deep patient data into precision therapeutic and predictive/prognostic diagnostic product candidates, designed to provide effective treatment solutions

[Noteable]

Quoting analysts, Prometheus has predicited that the inflammatory bowel disease market will be worth upward of $49 billion by 2030. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/merck-inks-11b-prometheus-takeover-firing-starting-gun-roivant-race-blockbuster-bowel The global personalized medicine market in which ONCY is positioned in is predicted to grow to US$ 5.7 trillion&

[Noteable]

$10 Bln is even more fair given that ONCY has a Phase 3 ready drug in 2 indications.

[fox7mf]

I won't argue that Pela may be worth something close to double digit billions, but as days continue to go by accompanied by an ever decreasing SP,  fair or not, $10b is highly unlikely. 

[Noteable]

US$10 Billion is just a US$1.0 Billion pre-split value for ONCY. 

[fox7mf]

A biotech presently trading at $114 usd just received a $10.8b usd B/O. How does a biotech currently trading at $1.14 usd get a B/O similar to this affluent neighborhood? The BOD seems unable to increase shareholder value. 

[Noteable]

The how is in the same way that the biotech Exelixis reached  US$9.9 Billion of market cap in 2017 from a share price of US$1.33 share in 2015. And part of the how is that ONCY has a final Phase 2 readout of the Bracelet-1 breast cancer clinical study to be made at an upcoming major medical conference in the next 2 months.

[fox7mf]

Yes yes, a good example...but please, PLEASE tell me that I don't have to wait another 2 years lol.

[KTDfyi]

2 months 

[westcoast1000]

KTDfyi, I like your optimism. If we get news in June that was as good as the news in December, and then we somehow announce plausible plans for Ph 3s, we can expect the share price to finally go up. Once it starts going up, it should overcome the huge ONCY skepticism that exists out there. Then we could get to the average share price of a small bio with two ph 3s.  What that is worth I do

[Noteable]

Another good and demonstrated example is ONCY's pelareorep affect on the tumor microenvironment (TME) in which ONCY has shown that pelareorep is able to convert a hypoxic and immunosuppressive TME into one that is conducive to the addition of PD-1 checkpoint inhibition.  Pelareorep is able to turn "cold" tumors into a "hot" tumor, and in so doing is able to stimulate

[Noteable]

It has only recently been accepted that there is a need to better understand the complex tumor microenvironment to more accurately determine prognosis and design therapeutic strategies capable of rendering tumors susceptible to immunotherapy and the immunologic effects of conventional therapies. ONCY's pelareorep is able to address the problem of the tumor microenvironment (TME) and in

[KTDfyi]

Coffey did mention a reference to another drug that failed in its purpose, yet became very profitable, that being Viagra. I've thought, because they can determine at 2 to 3 weeks if therapy is working. It could be used for just that alone. I think that's what you were trying to say anyway. Just thinking about this. A few doses of pelareorep and the Dr the patient know if the current

[Noteable]

A predictive diagnostic helps in determining which of a set of patients will benefit from a particular therapeutic. (i.e. companion diagnostic for Herceptin in breast cancer therapy) https://www.onclive.com/view/fda-approves-companion-diagnostic-for-trastuzumab-in-her2-breast-cancer A prognostic diagnostic helps advise whether the drug is still working in a patient after the patient has been

[westcoast1000]

Good post, Noteable. Please keep them coming, with realistic analysis and information, as always. 

[KTDfyi]

Yes sir, Aware 1 accomplished what it set out to do. Just another successful trial. Couple more to go, probably a car t in the mix as well. 

[Noteable]

ONCY has been able to complete patient enrollment in its AWARE-1, BRACELET-1 and GOBLET-1 planned clinical trials notwithstanding the issues of COVID-19 that other companies similarly faced but could not overcome.

[KTDfyi]

Pelareorep works synergistic with CI. It works better in some than others. They knew this, thus the forwarding into Roche's CI. As the CIs develop, there's going to be a need to understand how pela works with that particular CI. AWARE study answered questions that needed to be answered as in MOA. These synergies will have to be explored further. That said, the current trials are meant for

[Noteable]

Reposted from April 16, 2023 - "The how is in the same way that the biotech Exelixis reached  US$9.9 Billion of market cap in 2017 from a share price of US$1.33 share in 2015. And part of the how is that ONCY has a final Phase 2 readout of the Bracelet-1 breast cancer clinical study to be made at an upcoming major medical conference in the next 2 months."

[Angler101]

My little off-the-cuff prediction last week (not that anybody cares) of bigger buys starting to come in and some good action starting Monday was obviously a little inaccurate, but that being said, its’s not a matter of IF that’s going to happen, it’s when, and WHEN is sometime in the next 6 weeks coming up to ASCO.....and I believe we’ll start to see it happen at least by the first week in May

[Noteable]

And as earlier posted on the US$28 Bilion "bolt-on" acquistion of Horizon by Amgen, the FTC will continue weighing in on large M&A deals which will likely prevent Pfizer's US$43 Billion proposed acquition of Seagen, as demonstrated by the FTC's decision to overturn Amgen's US$28 Billion acquistion of Horizon Therapeutics and  Illumina's attempt at taking over

[Noteable]

PrometheusPromethazine Biosciences was acquired for US$10.8 Billion with 2 Phase 2 indications equating to $5.4 Billion per pipeline indication.

[Noteable]

Should read: Prometheus Biosciences 

[Noteable]

Forget about the old thinking that one Phase 3 indication is worth just US$1 Billion, given the dramatically changing M&A landscape driven by the looming patent cliff and the push for novel biologics by both industry and government, a per the IRA. Recent examples of M&A deals included pre-clinical companies like Trillium Therapeutics acqured by Pfizer for US$2.3 Billion; late-stage Phase

[jimsenior]

@Noteable.  The following involves Trillium. Search Timmerman Report. Jan Skvarka, former Trillium CEO, on driving a Turnaround. Best.

[Noteable]

"Moody’s Investor Services thinks these are just the start, with M&A activity expected to remain high over the next year to 18 months. Pharmas are trying to restock their pipelines due to approaching patent cliffs and long-term pricing pressure, Moody’s wrote in a Monday (April 18th) sector commentary note." https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/big-pharmas-finally-strike-gsk

[Noteable]

jimsenior - interesting read given that the CD47 has limited effectiveness and would need to be combined with an immune checkpoint inhibitor AND ONCY's pelareorep in order for the combination to postiviely affect the immune system. I think that Pfizer is aware of their limitations with CD47 and are developing sasanslimab, a SC administered PD-(L)1 checkpoint inhibitor to facilitate their

[jimsenior]

Yes, You covered this well in post 34790799 - June 29,2022. I was actually focussing on the turnaround and the fact Parsons is here now. Thank you for pointing out CD47 is potentially synergistic with pela. This seems to be heating up; tomorrow will be interesting. PS. I like the sound of triplets.

[Noteable]

Triplet therapy also helps protect a company from having their market challenged by competitive generic biosimilar products, since each product in the triplet makes the combination unique to the approved indication, which biosimilars would have difficulty replicating since a generic company would have to acquire FDA approval for each product in the triplet and then acquire approval for their

[Noteable]

Yes,  US$12Bln for ONCY is very possible given Merck's 10.8 Bln acquisition of Phase 2 Prometheus Bio and Gilead's US$21 Bln acquisition of the single product company Immunomedics.

[Noteable]

Merck’s $10.8 billion buyout of Prometheus Biosciences can proceed after the FTC's waiting period expired on Monday May 23, 2023, meaning the companies can proceed to close the deal, according to an SEC filing. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001718852/000119312523151010/d483093d8k.htm https://endpts.com/mercks-10-8b-prometheus-buyout-can-proceed-after-antitrust-review/

[Noteable]

As Merck's acquisition pf Prometheus Biosciences demonstrates, Big Pharma is increasingly moving on Phase 2 biotech assets in the US$ 10 -15 Billion range, for reasons already described including BPs looming patent cliff, increased competition for de-risked I/O biological assets, and approximately US$1.5 Trillion in M&A firepower that Big Pharma is seeking to deploy in near term M&A

[Noteable]

As previously posted, Big Pharma's M&A 'sweet-spot' is in the range between US$5 Billion and US$15 Billion.

[Noteable]

Merck's acquisition of Phase 2 biotech company Prometheus Biosciences is another example of Big Pharma's intent on purchasing pre-Phase 3 biotech companies i an effort to control the design of the Phase 3 registration study and as a way to manouver around the FTC's anti-competition actions, that have been fully discussed on this message board. Refer to FTC's negative ruling on the

[Noteable]

June 16, 2023 - Merck closed its $10.8 billion acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences, as a bolt-on acquisition, setting the stage for the drugmaker’s pursuit of an immunology blockbuster. https://endpts.com/merck-close-10-8b-deal-with-prometheus/

[westcoast1000]

Noteable's comment about this article is NOT hype for ONCY. It is the first line of the article itself.

[Noteable]

With Merck's acquisition of the Phase 2 company Prometheus Biosciences for US$10.8 Billion, an acquisition of ONCY for between US$10 and US$15 Billion represents "good value" to any Big Pharma acquirer, given what we know about the safety and effectiveness of ONCY's platform technology pelareorep in the treatment of multiple cancers.

[Noteable]

February 01, 2024 - Merck is interested in deals between $1-15 billion, with the $10 billion-plus range being the sweet spot.  Merck is narrowing the use of an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC)  acquired from VelosBio to focus solely on hematological malignancies.   Merck acquired Phase 1/2 ADC company VelosBio in 2020 for US$2.75 Billion. https://www.fiercebiotech.com

[Noteable]

To remind readers - Merck acquired Phase 2 biotech company Prometheus Biosciences for US$10.8 Billion.

[Noteable]

Auust 01, 2023 - Merck’s $10.8 billion acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences earlier this year gave the New Jersey company increased diversity in its portfolio, much needed considering its overwhelming dependence on cancer juggernaut Keytruda.     But buying out the San Diego immunology specialist has not satisfied Merck’s appetite for M&A, executives said during the

[Noteable]

August 01, 2023 - While Merck has been focused on expanding its business by 2028—the year Keytruda loses its exclusivity—another date now looming is 2026. That’s when the Inflation Reduction Act will allow Medicare to negotiate prices for the drugs on which it spends the most, with Keytruda at the top of the list. On Tuesday, Davis called the negotiation measure “unconstitutional price setting.”

[Noteable]

June 16, 2023 - Merck closed its $10.8 billion acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences, as a bolt-on acquisition, setting the stage for the drugmaker’s pursuit of an immunology blockbuster. https://endpts.com/merck-close-10-8b-deal-with-prometheus/ But buying out the San Diego immunology specialist has not satisfied Merck’s appetite for M&A, executives said during the company's second

[Noteable]

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.onc/oncolytics-biotech-inc?postid=35524199

[ENEMENEMYNEMO]

Yeah but the difference here is PRA032 actually cured 26% treated...which is marketable...and it's been proven in one study!

[Noteable]

" Yeah but" ...... Prometheus Biosciences was a 29 year old Phase 2 company before being acquired by Merck for US$10.8 Billion, which points out how little that you actually know.

[Noteable]

And the Prometheus Bioscience US$ 10.8 Billion acquisition of the company after only one postivie Phase 2 study demonstratres how quickly things change in the biotechnology industry.  

[Noteable]

Furthermore the PRA035 study measured clinical remisiion (and not 'cure"). Tthe PRA035 Artemis study demonstrated a 26.5% 'clinical remission, however clinical remission is a subjective reporting parameter that does not necessarily represent a "curative" response, as outline in the attached link Clinical remission. This is something you can identify on your own. It

[Noteable]

That should read: PRA023 Artemis-UC Phase 2 study --- not 035 or 032  https://www.merck.com/news/merck-strengthens-immunology-pipeline-with-acquisition-of-prometheus-biosciences-inc/

[ENEMENEMYNEMO]

I'm just messing with you Notable, trying to fry your algorithm. Keep up the good work!

[Peladawn]

You're not messing with anyone....Notable's messing with YOU!...you don't stand a snowball's chance in hell!

[ENEMENEMYNEMO]

You're right...  I don't know how to cut n' paste!

[Azzak34]

Haha have you been sitting side saddle all day? Note just tore you a new one. 

[CMHarring218431]

Mo....actualy I don't think it's so much cut and paste as it is connecting the dots. IMHO, I think Noteable's presentation of material and his own thought flow really well from post to post. Thanks Note.... Having not been here very long, I have caught up with the scientific data regarding Pela, that I would not have had the time to explore. That 10.8 billion dollar deal is sweet music

[Buckhenry]

If you go back in time unnoteable has been telling us about all these biotechs that have been bought out... somehow he thinks it's our turn to be bought out just because. Obviously all of the companies bought out have something that the buyer wants. The pumpers here think that everyone should get a participation award just for showing up...  girls... life don't work that way. 

[Peladawn]

That's right, Bucky....why on earth would any big pharma ever wanna buy into a biotech that has a product that has received two fast track designations, has shown triple the results of existing treatments and is very likely to become the standard of care in multiple cancer indications....that would be just downright uncivilized, now wouldn't it! Thank you for spending months of your

[ENEMENEMYNEMO]

EXACTLY........Sooooooo?????

[Angler101]

Gee EMENUMB, I guess picking up on sarcasm is another thing you don't know how to do!

[ENEMENEMYNEMO]

Hey Angler, me thinks you need to find a dictionary and a sense of humour....don't ask LesApes though...he ain't got no sense of ha-ha.

[Jf4270393]

Well stated Peladawn. Some people have to operate in a consistantly negative manner.

[Buckhenry]

remember pumpers, coming on the stockhouse, a place where you share ideas and thoughts it's important to only be able to hear yours only and those who agree with you. The block button is an effective tool for creating this safe space for you. Being a member of the flat earth woke community makes you "special ".

[Peladawn]

Well then, I guess we can add cut and paste to the long list of things you apparently don't know how to to.