Oncolytics Biotech Inc ONCY

Weekend update, lots to comment on

[canadafan]

First, as always wishing everyone a good day.
Regarding our Onc chat series. Great to see some decent comments.
Good, bad or neutral, wonderful to see an Onc  focus .

My two cents worh
I was not able to listen to either of the two fireside chats. I appreciate some could care less, im  not well physically. & with the recent passing of our son, emotionally not the best either.
Point, I don't have a lot of spare time to comment, or read the posts.
As a routine, I do catch up on Sunday.

I see interesting comments re finance guy Mr. Kirk look.
His title & job involves finance. His background & schooling is finance.
For those who don't know: Accountants by schooling,persona & acumen are very detailed & focused on accuracy.
In that context, very conservative people. 
My read from the comments on here, he did not present great information regarding clinical, medical, laboratory or study related indeas moving forward.
i agree 100% , he is not the person to be public cheerleader for Pelareoreps " potentials" & various scinarios available.examples being accelerated approval, various trial parameters etc etc.
On that same subject. That does not make him inept or make ONC mangement in general inept.
Quick example. When I was on a B.O.D. The financial questions & data came to & from the CFO.
The specific scientific details came to & from the various experts within the required information needs at that time.certainly not the C.F. O.
Regarding the very recent update on the bracelet trial results.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the " outcomes" are based on people dying. At trial end time , many were still alive,!
Clinically great news. Statistically hard to deal with numbers that don't exist.
The take away, they now have numbers, both from older studies & most recent.
They have FDA guidelines for phase 3. Now they need a source of $$ to register & start the trial.
options?
A pharma co- therapy license agreement. Similar partership agreement. Or a complete buyout.
It was again mentioned the global opportunity of $5+ billion/ year market for MBc treatment.
Thst same number has been used by RBC analyst for years.
Add- on the upcoming Pancreatic cancer opportunity & you get product sales higher yet again.
Not to be forgotten, the IREN study with triple neg breast cancer.
Thst trial is very quietly moving forward.

The SP right now, is beyond silly low.  That is a study in of itself.
i agree with noteable as well. They will be announcing a financial deal soon.
Quite simply they need to come up with an option to move forward.
With every negotiation there are items on the plus side & on the negative side.

Clinically massive contributors to the plus side.
Assuming a complete buyout. The inplace accumulated carry forward $$ loss is greater than the existing trading price.
Many companies get bought & sold , for the aquirier looking at the accounting loss, to be used against corporate profits.
Back to clinical. They now have data, biomarkers, FDA fastrack approval for both MBc & the pancreatic phase 2 completed trial.
They as a result if a competive process grant, started a new arm ( cohort #5 with Roche) , phase 2 
FYI, oncolytics biotech is in collaboration with Roche in four out of five successful G.I. Cancer cotherapy programs.
The most significant being the scheduled to start next year. Also with direction and assistance from CGAG. A global leader in pancreatic cancer treatments.
in simple terms , many significant opportunities for sucsess.

On the negative side of the  ledger?
onc is in a " must do" financial scinario.
Tough position to negotiate from.
That significantly hinders the upside potential. That does limit the downside , but not as significant.
In todays bio/ pharm market place, Onc is one of the lowest market cap in its comparable basket.
recent analysts have put a 12 month target of $5/ ps average.
That number is ultra conservative (accountants), & does not speculate on a buyout price.
Years ago, they published on the investor presentation similar O.V. Business take over comparables.
The lowest ( then) was about $500mill usd.
Saying that, and all things considered a " walk away" minium would be over a $billion.
With a fair & reasonable number being in the $3B to $5b range.

" soon"?
before  the end of this calendar year.
What to expect?
I know many would want a buyout. This has been a very long journey.
With the recent bracelet numbers, there is not much significant clinically to report.
Time to sit down, sharpen the pencils & do a deal.
One reason the SP is so low. Lack of  a clear path & long history of delays.
That equates to doubts.
The SP does not match the clinical progress.
Thst equates to a great take over opportunity.
I'll know the results as soon as everyone else does.
enjoy our great Canadian fall weather.
stay safe & healthy.

[Quentin30]

so sorry to hear about your son... stay well Canadafan.

[Peladawn]

Quentin.....you're so sorry about Canadafan's son? ...then why are you here every day trying to trash Oncy, when Oncy is trying to bring a product to market that would help other people suffering from the same affliction?......you're sorry about his son, but nobody else matters?

[Buckhenry]

First off this is a site about the stock and company  not a social site... not sure why folks post their personal stuff here... not the place for it. I think most of us are bashing the company management. Folks get waaaay to personal here. 

[Quentin30]

Peladan, I feel sorry for anybody having lost somebody they love. But don't you dare try and conflate my disdain of ONCY management as being a lack of empathy for any one else suffering... I was an investor for over 20 years... and in that time ONCY has been going around in nothing but circles... So listen up and let me put your straight on a few facts, that you seem too ignorant or thick to

[Angler101]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Azzak34]

I've said it once and I'll say it again, I sure hope Karma exists and everyone is rewarded or condemned based on what they're owed. You sir may hope that it doesn't. 

[Buckhenry]

Azzwhole et al remind me of the woke libtards that burned Portland down a few years back because folks didn't agree with their narrative.... and they threw a tantrum 

[Azzak34]

No tantrums Buckster. To each what they deserve is all I said, good or bad. In your case you're owed a whole bunch of dumb. 

[Buckhenry]

You don't get what you deserve in life.... you get what you negotiate... azzwhole waiting around with his head up his who ha... waiting to get what he thinks he deserves. 

[Buckhenry]

Gittin  mighty close to that 52 week low... do we deserve that azz?

[Buckhenry]

Ole unnoteable throwing more garbage out there.... gittin close to the 52 week low..  Even unnoteable can't save it now. 

[Buckhenry]

Maybe I don't know much.... but I do know which way this stock price is headed.... can you spell 5w week low...

[Azzak34]

Taking this hard Buckster and again, struggling to read. Seems to me someone is a lil defensive about judgement coming for them!! 

[venture009]

It seems many are struggling to read. Volume ticking and sp ticking down. Not the perfect sinario for success.  With the depletion of cash they better come up with some answers soon. 

[Snowdrift]

I always appreciate your comments, Canadafan.  And I'm grateful and impressed that you take time to give your opinion, despite your current physical and emotional challenges. I hope you get better soon.  I'm rooting for you and your family, as I'm sure so many of us are on this board. All the best, Snowdrift