Ovintiv Inc OVV

I smell $11.00+

[deepblue]

Today if eia reports the same api #'s

[regardless]

Deepblue...// of we get a couple more draws on inventory going into June mixed with American finds buying tons of stock for their funds.... we hit 20$ by mid July or end of June... stock went up 6$ in one month and 2 days allready  I can't wait to see what funds will do here 

[deepblue]

Hope your right. I'm not expecting 20ish until Christmas cuz oil and gas stocks normally don't fair well in summer months. Usually its sell in may and walk away but that's all out the door this year.

[regardless]

So we weren't a takeout target at 3.50$ not at 7$ not at 11.50$ i guess a Major will let this run up to 20$ before offering a 30% premium on top of that..... unreal is all I can say

[cashtango00]

Its all about protecting balance sheets and maintaining lots of liquidity now.   Even the majors are under balance sheet pressure.  no one is going to write a check for 10b in this market, especially when they have the chance to pick through the BK bodies that are washing up on shore as well.  Lots of companies are trying to sell distressed assets, but there aren't many

[regardless]

Cash tango  you know something? thats a great point ... and so very true

[venturetrader11]

Company has too much debt to be a prime takeover target. In this environment nobody wants to put their eggs in this basket that has a hole. As far as the buyout price goes, I dont think the major shareholders will sell out any time soon. Most of the big time shareholders got in when the stock was 20$, if they havent cost averaged down we are looking for a buyout price above that for any unanimous

[regardless]

Venture trader  I never understood how newfield was forced to sell they were profitable how in tue world did they get fprced

[venturetrader11]

Exactly, if you are profitable you buy another business or you get bought by a supermajor. Not by a peer. Assume I am one of the largest shareholder (possibly a hedgefund) of Company A. The company is somewhat profitable but with glaring inefficiencies. Their stock didnt offer any dividends, was very volatile and didnt have any interest in the primary focus area (Midland basin). Since I am a big

[Skater]

NIce close, $11.46 cdn.  

[deepblue]

Wowzers..Markets all red and most energy stocks down yet this gem closes at the day high. Hmmmm something coming down the pipe?

[regardless]

I think it's because hedge funds are all chasing oil now I read an article on investing . Com alao two houses upped their mid term target to 12$ usa wich is 16.80 Canadian 

[Bluejaysoilcomp]

no it is a short covering from Candian banks.

[KnowWhenToHoldM]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[deepblue]

And she may finish green today!

[venturetrader11]

The inclusion of this stock in other indices in June should create a baseline right? and also due to demand the stock should run up. let me know what yall think....there should be plenty of run room

[regardless]

Venture trader it would be great to know how many shares these funds will be looking for if ovv.... even a number as low as 10 million shares would create a huge run up

[regardless]

I just read on yahoo board that up to 70 million shares need to be purchased by these index funds ? im not sure if that's for sure but if it were the case we'd be at 17$ usa in short order

[KnowWhenToHoldM]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[venturetrader11]

Look at the last presentation on ovintiv website. It tells you right there that the goal is to get into passive indexes and that they will be getting in those funds in June. I am not quite sure what the reference of 70 mill shares means though, does it mean upto that amount could be gobbled up? Or does it mean it is certain that amount of shares will be taken? How big is our float?

[KnowWhenToHoldM]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[regardless]

For some reason I cannot cut and paste and my post did not say it was an article  it was written however by a poster on that message board 

[KnowWhenToHoldM]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[regardless]

No problem man  also i tried to cut and paste the article from investing dot com but have now success uploading it on Stockhouse for some reasom 

[venturetrader11]

pretty much the same thing the presentation says................this is what someone posted on that board OVV redmiciled in Jan from CAN to USA with the primary objective of being included in US indices..Russell, S&P, and many more. As a CAN company it was not eligible to be included in US indices. US markets etc. are over 10 time bigger than TSX markets. Passive funds is over 50% of all

[regardless]

So the question here is when these funds rebalance ... are they : -obligated to purchase our stock? -are the obligated to purchase up to 70million shares? -is June the only month in wich they can accumilate ? - or can it be spread out in the next rebalancing cycle? i know what the company states ... but companies state a lot of things 

[venturetrader11]

The inclusion into the Index is what triggers the buying. So first the inclusion has to happen in this case this is slated for June 2020. When a stock is included in an index the funds that comprise the index have to buy a share in that stock propotional to the value OVV brings to the index. The number of shares acquired is going to vary drastically in line with the percentage of the total assets

[regardless]

Venture trader  my question is what makes ovv qualify if at all to these indexes? is it market cap?  if so we didn't qualify in February when we were 16$ a share so what now?

[venturetrader11]

There is alot of criteria that is looked at but primarily market cap, financial viability and adequate liquidity and reasonable price....all this info is included in the indexes fact sheet....so the first one I would look at is the S&P 1500 and the items mentioned above are what are looked at.  So why didnt we qualify in Feb, we did but the major indexes dictate when they want to

[regardless]

Venturetrader if our market cap has hit the dumps and our impact won't be much as ypu say then that does not bode well for us in June ? i mean you said one thing that the funds will push this higher and now your saying our impact won't be much? i don't understand what your saying lol?

[venturetrader11]

I understand the double take on this. I was comparing the impact that it would have had when stock was 16$ compared to now 8 Usd. Certainly when market cap was double what it is now its weight on the index would be more compared to now. If you have cost averaged down like i have then even a small win is okay at this point. The passive funds will create a floor for the price...

[regardless]

Venture trader im not critiquing ypu you make valid points both ways  what floor do you feel funds would put under the stock price  also with our market cap where do we even qualify to be ?

[venturetrader11]

I only see this thing making into S&P 600 small cap. I wish stock price was above 9.3 USD for it to make it into S&P 400. But I dont thing we will make that boat by the decision time.... Inlcusion to an index doesnt change the economics of a company and hence I feel the positive effect may be 10 - 15% on the day of announcement. Which is still significant. I see the floor at 8.50 $-9.50