Post by
TABerlioz1111 on Apr 25, 2019 2:44pm
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To sum up my latest few posts: the weak link in the palladium supply chain is definitely the South African mines. They are vulnerable to disruption from multiple sources and they provide a significant percentage of market supply (Russia + South Africa is already 85% of the palladium market).
Russian production thru Norilsk should be fairly stable this year, so what happens in South Africa is going to influence heavily what price PALDF gets for its output.
And you can now safely bet the precious metals analysts who predicted a drawn out correction in pallladium prices were dead wrong. The demand side of the equation will be should hold up or do better with both the US and China looking to implement policies to boost the economy. Meanwhile, the supply side is threatened with multiple sources of disruption in South Africa.
The two most realistic scenarios are either prices stabilize around $1,300-$1,400 per ounce or they spike above of that range due to supply disruptions before going back to equilibrium around that range once steady supply is restored.
Palladium is certainly not headed to $1,000 or below in 2019.