Post by
FormerHedgie on Nov 13, 2024 5:55pm
First reading, looks like a very strong quarter
The headline numbers look impressive. The process of repricing printed ticket contracts has progressed well. This was reflected in a substantially improved gross margin. They noted that all contracts would be repriced by the end of 2024 which bodes well for Q4 / Q1 results. The increased gross margin generate by ticket repricing accounted for just under 50% of the gross margin gains.
The impact of FX also had a positive impact. There was a substantial appreciation in the USD vs CAD which added 2.6M of incrmental gain / profit. There could also have been some gains depending on where the instant tickets were printed (Canadian or US facility). The more work done in Canada the greater the benefit to profiability.
The Catalyst iLottery win is to go live in 2025. It will be very interesting / important to see how that revenue stream grows and any feedback from on the Catalyst platform. For now, this win is just news and any financial impact is yet to be realized.
In the quarter, PBL earned U$6M from the michigan lottery net to them. It is important to remember that the revenue from Michigan will shortly go to zero as NeoGames / Aristocrat take over 100% of this contract. I think it is important to remember this fact. If we look out a few quarters and the U$6M is gone, this is no longer a record quarter and the revenue / profitability seen this quarter is likely to diminish.
Overall, a very strong showing from the printed ticket business. The most valuable component of PBL, the very high margin iLottery business, remains in transition as Michigan declines to zero and Kansas will only begin to ramp up in 2025. I think the iLottery business still holds several unknowns which will hold back the share price until concerns have been addressed.
The competitive environement in iLottery remains high and the future of NPI, besides the existing long-term contracts that are in place, remains uncertain as NeoGames / Aristocrat are clearly a competitor now and much less a "partner" to Pollard.
I think the stock will get a brief lift tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how analysts digest and project this quarter qoing forward. Despite the positive headlines, I think the next few quarters will still be transitional quareters for the iLottery business which is really the catalyst for growth for Pollard and the source of much of its present / future valuation.
Net net, I think the stock may pop on the headline numbers, then once the excitement subsides, the stock will continue to be range bound around the current share price as the market awaits more clarity / proof of the long-term competitiveness of Pollard's iLotery business.
I think Pollard is still in the "show me" phase for their new iLottery product (Catalyst). As this platform gains more wins and its capabilities can become visbile to the market, then the shares could begin to appreciate again but I think this is 6-12 month in the future at a minimum.
Keep up the great work PBL, I would love to see them competing and winning in iLottery and winning back contracts from NeoGames / Aristocrat and taking sole control of NPI customers to settle the score with NeoGames / Aristocrat. The next 6 - 12 months should continue to be very interesting.
Comment by
3Briers on Nov 13, 2024 7:55pm
Nice summary on quarterly results I believe the shares will bump up 10-20% by end of week Company is moving forward and Management is very optomistic $30++ by year end