That is now an expectation of 21 million tons of coking coal gone for the year, "forecast to be 177.3 million metric tons, down from an initial projection of 198 million tons,"....There is NO making this back within the next 12-24 months...It does not matter if it all turns around in 4 weeks that coal is gone and coking coal as any commodity is priced on the margin....just to much gone now coking coal will be elevated for 1-2 years and the Aussie companies WILL make it so to make up for losses...substituting higher price for lost volume.
This flood is already 2.6 times worse for the coking coal lost then in the 2008 floods that saw 300 per ton contract and 375 spot...and there is probably allot more rain on the way
Queensland Cuts Coal Output Forecast 10.5% on Floods
By Ben Sharples -
Queensland cut its annual steelmaking-coal output forecast by 10.5 percent and said it expects resumption of normal mining to take as long three months after floods in Australia, the biggest exporter of the fuel.
Coking-coal output in the 12 months ended June 30 is forecast to be 177.3 million metric tons, down from an initial projection of 198 million tons, Mines and Energy Minister Stephen Robertson said in a telephone interview. That compares with 182.1 million in the year ended June 30, 2010.
‘Critical Low’
Train services will restart on some parts of the Blackwater rail line today, transporting coal to the export harbor of Gladstone, QR National Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Lance Hockridge said in a statement. The track has been closed since Dec. 27 because of flooding.
“Our stockpile remains at a critical low of just over 300,000 tons,” Gladstone Ports Corp. Chief Executive Officer Leo Zussino said in an e-mailed statement. “We would expect to be able to load around 2 million tons of coal this month with the port reaching full capacity by the end of March.”
Australian hard prime coking coal used by steelmakers sold for $280 a metric ton on average last week, up from $265 the week before, according to IHS McCloskey, a Petersfield, U.K.- based provider of coal data. Prices may reach $300 a ton this year, McCloskey said Jan. 17.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-19...