Peregrine Diamonds Ltd. PGDIF

Your discussion G

[cudjo]

What if the valuations come in around the 125 dollar mark - I don't see it being much higher than that in a down diamond market that continues to go south.  If they come in at that price, what effect do you think it will have on the share price?  It will remain pretty much flat as pi$$ on a plate IMO. Valuation wont  make it past 100 bucs, bort bort bort, share price falls to a nickle or less, next financing at 2.5 cents or less.

What happens after the Preliminary Economic Assesment, how do we advance this stock if no partner comes up to bat.  That will really be the only way this moves ahead without even more dilution IMO. PEA will be delayed because 7 values will fall short, they need more diamonds, next financing at 2.5 cents.

What about a 10 to 1 roll back, anyone see that coming, or something like that?  That is one way marginal stocks reduce dilution, I have never seen it work though, value continues to erode afterward in my experience.  This is a real possibility, I do not like it, but could it happen?  Expect a roll back only if they decide to look for more diamonds, then you are 100% correct, value will tank again.  Next financing without a roll back 2.5 cents, with a 10 to 1 roll back, a dime.

What if CH7, being critical to any mine plan, and I agree with oiltar on this statement, isn't enough to make this economical with CH6, where do we go from there.  At this point I think the brothers will have limited opportunities to sell a PEA to a major because of the dissapointing CH7 news - admit it - most longs thought it would be much better and thought KIM 5 would be a darling.  7 is critical for a mine plan, that is why the PEA will be delayed, they need more diamonds and every long here thought the KIM 5 would be a whopper, next financing at 2.5 cents

Share price after valuation - best guess 10-12 cents, worse case a nickle, 2.5 cents, see my other remarks
Share price after PEA - best guess 10-20 cents, worse case, close up shop. PEA will be delayed, could shut it down, then see oiltars post at SI, all the longs will have nothing.

Really not a whole bunch for an old long to look forward to IMO. Ahhhhh, now you understand.  You should sell while you still can.

[Kodiboy]

Cudjo, simple question...are you a buyer, long buyer at 2.5 cents?

[robybob]

I'll take a stab at it, I will leave the clowns notes in for contrast   What if the valuations come in around the 125 dollar mark - I don't see it being much higher than that in a down diamond market that continues to go south.  If they come in at that price, what effect do you think it will have on the share price?  It will remain pretty much flat as pi$$ on a plate IMO

[ekim]

Great post robybob. CH-7 is a tale of two worlds. First throw away domain 1, 3 and 5. Volumetrically insignificant. They will feed the mill for a couple of years in the early stages and only need to reach marginal cut-off. I expect everyone of the domains to do that and then some. Focus on Domain 2 and 4. They both race to the bottom of the pipe with current knowledge. They both decide how deep

[mill44]

Cudjo's view is clearly quite pessimistic, but he has a few things going in his favor. First would be the need for a lot of funds to take this to the next level, even without further exploration. The second is the latest result. If you ignore the breakage, there is little in there to change the market's mind. But again, his case will only work if the Friedlands abandon the project

[ekim]

I doubt a streaming rights deal. Whoever started the concept of selling off your primary commodity today for production in the future is shooting themselves in the foot. They could raise a little bit of a money ($5 or $10 million) through a marketing agreement...but I think they are looking bigger than that. It has literally been on ly 2.5 half weeks since Chidliak has been completely owned by

[mill44]

Fundamentals alone can put a bottom under the SP, even lift it 50-100%. But that's still 20-21c. The market's fear of more of what can be seen as a trend now will only disappear if the financials improve drastically. Streaming, JV, any other way, but money, and not just 10M, has to come from the outside to convince the market that no more financing at 50% discount should be expected.

[myview1]

I agree, otherwise the party is over!

[mill44]

Ekim, a streaming deal most likely came out of necessity. You have to get to production to sell your commodity. If the only way to get to production is to sell part of that earlier, then you do it or shelve the project with the hope that the conditions change. It is hard to judge what's better without a crystal ball.

[ekim]

How would you stream something that is $600 per tonne in revenue..but could be as high as $1000/tonne. "It is also important to understand that the high modelled price does not represent a maximum price and that the ultimate average diamond price in a mine production scenario could be higher than US$236 per carat. Given the number of large stones in this parcel, and their relatively high

[mill44]

I am not saying that streaming should be their first choice, but they need money to get to production. CH6 had no fancy yellows, we don't know about CH7 yet, but how much do you think Tiffany would pay for those rights in current market conditions, even if we had plenty? As long as you don't show the market another option beside equity financing, hoping for more than 20-21c is quite

[bludogg]

mike, do you know if any drills are turning on site???

[ekim]

No I don't think so. CH44 would be the only one to rc drill or trench and literally would be year 10+ in LOM. Not heavy on the npv. Core drilling is done in March April if the target is under a lake.spring melt in June and strategic drilling and/or geotech drilling in July august. I'm suspecting a focus on converting more tffe to inferred for 6 and 7 will be the focus assuming PGD