Petrominerales Ltd PMGLF

bottom out?

[nolantbw]

It appears we have hit bottom and have nowhere to go but up... poor managment has brought the stock price down to a cheap buy. I dont see this stock going any lower than 7.00. What do you think??

[oilwatcher13]

This stock is trading at .80 of book value and their drilling and exploration program for 2013 is less than some smaller junior players in Columbia. This management group could not find oil in Cushing, Oklahoma ....

[repap_nb]

This is my first look at PMG - Looks very cheap by most metrics so I had to dig into it a bit.  Looks more like a cash flow story once I start to dig. Looking at Cash Flow upcoming quarter: (and using this Q as a guide) Opening Cash of 33 Million Estimate Net Income 50 Million + Estimate Depreciation 90 Million Less Derivative gain Estimate 50 Million Means 120 Million Available for

[maxleverage]

The $250 M credit is not needed for operations.    They have $200 M left of the convertible bond which has August 2013 put option so likely the credit facility will be used to pay off the convertible.   The stock is cheap by all valuation metrics (and it has $300 M of pipeline assets which the market does not  appear to be valuing).  Everyone is waiting for

[repap_nb]

I posted the original back in late December:  Did a cross check with latest results in red. (original text in black)   FromThis is my first look at PMG - Looks very cheap by most metrics so I had to dig into it a bit.  Looks more like a cash flow story once I start to dig. Looking at Cash Flow upcoming quarter: (and using this Q as a guide) Opening Cash of 33 Million 

[NightowI]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[maxleverage]

The risk is that of the 41 million barrels left, only 13 million are in the "corcel fairway" (where most of the production comes from) and the majority is at Orito and Neiva which only produce 5,000 barrels per day (these two assets are "production sharing contracts" with the state owned oil company).   Given that there is on paper only 1 year of oil production left

[deisman]

Impressive take maxleverage.  So based on those assumptions what do you think is a fair value for the stock?  Unfortunatly production has kept  going down and with it the share price.  I know you're not suppose to average down but I couldn't resist.  They pay a good dividend and buy back shares all without too too much debt.   Large holdings, High

[maxleverage]

Sorry, I don't have a "number for you" as to what the stock is "worth".     I am a believer that they have a great land package, high net backs, and pipeline assets.  If they find some meaningful oil, the stock will explode to the upside. However, the $200 M tax dispute scares the hell out of me.   The matter is not bad enough to

[Danka12]

Great post btw. I agree with everything. especially the breakdown on reserves. i've always been worried about the large % of reserves booked at orito/neiva. lower netback given EOR contracts, longer dated, lower NAV. and the tax issue is scary.