Post by
Proud_Canadian2 on Jun 18, 2014 1:27pm
OIL & POLITICS – the two “elements” that always mix.
Based on what is beginning to unwind in the Middle East, the two “elements” on which the world runs to lubricate its gears – oil and the politics of oil – this time may mix into a kind of acid that could burn a bigger hole in the fabric of the world than the gurus on Wall Street realise.
The facts on the ground are now vividly illustrating what horrific mess is the Middle East. It is strange to see that those who are short oil are still advocating lower oil prices going forward, when it is nothing but fiction in their minds not only in the near term but where 1973 oil shock may later pail in comparison after all. Even if these words may seem to be merely self-serving and offering no substance, but those who argue that the United States will invariably steer the "oil ship" right to advance its interests [interests being uninterrupted flow of oil from the Middle East with relative balance imposed on Iran and Saudis], discount two huge problems with this assumption.
The first is our Western way of thinking. We tend not to take into account the level of fatalism that plagues deeply sectarian, and now murderously enraged, Islam. The second issue is that after wasting hundreds of billions in Iraq and Afghanistan with literally nothing to show for in the end, the United States can no longer afford to exert the same level of raw power to simply impose its will. This shift in paradigm has not yet sunk into the minds of Wall Street oil "gurus" [the group dependent on the mood in Washington to “invade something or rather” to make things simple]; and, it appears, no one among them realises that current anxiety in the capital is a clear sign that what was possible before is rather unlikely now.
Only the blind and indifferent cynical manipulators can’t see that Washington is too stretched - from lecturing Russia while being involved in “building” yet another failed state in Ukraine... to their recently announced “pivot” in Asia to "contain" China. The question is, which of the three hotspots is the bigger fish to fry? The answer – certainly not all three at once, with the Middle East demanding much higher costs [in terms of money and lives] than the other two newest possible adventures combined. Moreover, situation in Iraq, were three powerful local players are involved [Iran, Saudis and Turkey], implies higher than ever existential threat to Israel. Given current US Administration’s cooler than ever relationship with Tel Aviv, it is less and less clear how far things may go if Washington takes pressure of Tehran in exchange for “help” in Iraq. If Iran ends up controlling Iraq and Syria [with Lebanon falling next, just as Jordan disintegrates due to their inability to deal with enormous flood of refugees from neighboring states while the Russians remain “in neutral” or openly supporting Iran], only God knows what this existential threat to Israel may end up in. As I see it, there hasn’t been such an irresolvable mess in the Middle East ever. Only total disintegration of any resemblance of current status quo, with rivers of blood flowing on all sides, will change anything. If that happens, the last thing on the minds of Wall Street analysts will be the question related to “how low will the oil go”.
This is my opinion only.
PC2
PS
[[What does the above has to do with the future of the pipsqueak like SGL? My view – as much as it has to do with any debt-burdened (or not) Alberta leaky boat floating in the sea of oil. With oil prices likely to remain high, SGL will either survive or even prosper.. depending on whether they do cut the dividend or not.]]
PC2
Comment by
power_auditor on Jun 18, 2014 5:06pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy