St Andrew Goldfields Ord STADF

What am I missing with SAS?

[blueboy]

Anyone who can help / has an opinion:

 

I am a small shareholder of SAS and the stock is a bit lower now than when I purchased it.  I looked at their news releases on their website and gleaned the information below (I hope I didn't make any mistakes, but double-check and don't believe my numbers just in case).  I have a few conclusions from the data:

1) Their quarterly production has, for the most part, increased practically every quarter, QOQ, in the last two years.

2) At the end of Q3 2012, they were only about 4,300 oz from their total production from all of 2011.  If they stay on track for 100,000 oz in Q4, they will beat their 2011 production by about 33%.

3) Mine cash costs have been on a pretty steady decline for the last two years, from over $1,000 to under $800.

4) Total cost of mining the gold (including royalties) has also declined over the last two years, from the $1,100 / oz range to the $900 / oz range.

 

With all of these positive points above, together with their good drilling results that they announce periodically (including very recently), why is the SAS share price declining right now instead of increasing?  It would seem to me that the SAS share price should be performing much better...

 

Thoughts?

 

BB

 

 

Time		Production		Cash Cost	Royalty Cost	Total Gold Cost
Period		(oz)		($/oz)	($/oz)	($/oz)
Q1 2011		16,457		1,007	72	1,079
Q2 2011		15,197		1,178	99	1,277
Q3 2011		20,018		990	140	1,130
Q4 2011		22,350		772	137	909
FY 2011		74,022		960	120	1,080
Q1 2012		21,018		858	138	996
Q2 2012		23,016		785	134	919
Q3 2012		25,742		768	127	895
Q4 2012		TBD		TBD	TBD	TBD
FY 2012		69,776

[checkup]

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[moe4]

Taylor mine 15,000 ton bulk sample mix in will be a + in 4th quarter results ..GLTA Moe4u                                       Q3 2012 HIGHLIGHTS           

[Curvature]

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[Nomad3]

Too many shares in weak hands at the moment.  The stock is a bargain, but there is consistent selling as one fund in particular, which I dont have to mention , needs to reduce their exposure. Its been selling for 8 mos straight but they owned over 40 million shares at one point....not sure what their current holdings are.

[blueboy]

Curvature - I took the numbers and the terminology straight out of the SAS earnings releases on their website.  If you disagree with the numbers I posted, please post the correct table.  I don't mind the criticism, but only if it comes along with the corrected data to help me understand why SAS is behaving like it is. BB

[blueboy]

If the fund is THAT large of a holder, is it Brieger's fund?  I understand if they are exposed too much, but why reduce their exposure now?  With the numbers in the chart I posted initially (production increasing, costs decreasing), I don't understand why anyone would get out now, when the share price is so low.  If SAS had gone on a run and was at or near a high, I could

[Nomad3]

Google Trapeze and OSC .  Trapeze owned ~ 37 million shares of SAS in April 2012.    

[Curvature]

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[blueboy]

Thanks Curvature but too complicated to me.  It is obvious that their production is on an uptrend.  Is it safe to say that their total costs are on a downtrend?   If they are, and gold prices are steady or even increasing, and with production increasing, that means that SAS' profits should keep increasing as well (as recent financials have indicated).  That means that the

[Curvature]

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[blueboy]

Ya, I mentioned Brieger who is actually the guy who pumps Scorpio Mining and Scorpio Gold.  I had never heard of the Abramsons before and now I wish I hadn't...   BB