Southern Pacific Resource Corp STPJF

Break Even

[hudson1234]

Hey I am long on STP and have just recently been doing some research on the neccessary production numbers by the company to break even. There has been some discussion that the number is around 6500 bbl/d I was just wondering if some people in the know could help me identify if this is still the break even and if so where they got the information from. 

The first issue I see is that the number has remained the same following the new debt obligation the company took on. Does anyone know what kind of production increase would be needed to support the extra interest payments, if any?

Additionally Lutes in a transcribed interview dated September 26/2012 retrieved here <https://www.shpacific.com/en/in_the_media/stp-2012-09-david-pescod-article.pdf> Indicated Mckay had to produce approx 4500-5500 bbl/day to stand on its own. 

And in an old analysis by connaccord dated Feb 11/2013 retrieved here <https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnoteviewer.aspx?pubid=87724> they indicate the number to be much higher (8800 bbl/day: 4000 from Senlac and 4800 from McKay)

Obviously I realise there are many factors that affect break even, such as the strength of the U.S. dollar and increased oil prices just to name a few. I am just trying to do my own DD and wondering if someone could help me clarify the numbers.

Thanks

[Duxing]

I believe when people mentioned 6500bbl/day on this board, they meant Mckay only.

[ShatnersRug]

I don't have my files handy so I can't provide numbers to back this up, but the rough b/e we came up with was ~6,500 - 6,700 bbl/d combined production for Senlac and McKay. From memory: Last quarter STP lost ~$16mil (or 4 cents per share) This quarter I'm estimating that that figure will be down to a loss of 3 cents per share. Lower $CDN, higher oil price on sales, and capex was

[Pandora]

Off topic. Anybody else having a glitch on Stockhouse the last few days? I notice when I use my 'back' button that it is taking me out of Portfolio view. Not sure if it's Stockhouse or the result od my latest Adobe flash update.

[Awarded]

Shat – At first, I was confused when you said “Awarded is quite correct when he states that it's BS that some investors and fund managers have access to March production already.”  I substituted the word “untrue” for “BS” in your statement and interpreted you as saying I did not think some have advance knowledge of March production.  But then I rethought the issue and figured that

[ShatnersRug]

You are correct, Awarded. I was not implying that what you were stating was false. I used a colloquialism that inferred a stink, as in the situation itself is full of it. (that I find the situation distasteful) I disagree with your view that having level 2 quotes is on equal footing to that of having production numbers ahead of the pack. Level 2 allows a trader to cherry pick a more profitable

[freedom45]

Awarded. Where do I go to register and pay for this info ? Thanks

[nikehercules]

IHS insight, but the subscription is expensive - several thousand dollars.

[deduction]

I use IHS Accumap - current production data is still up to Feb. I'm wanting to see how 2P1 holds up and how 1P5 starts for next months data (hopefully 1P5 will have enough run time to show a reliable change in production - It is quite possible that we will have to wait for Aprils numbers though) Deduction

[Awarded]

I do not know the name of the industry software, just that it exists. Deduction has told us that IHS Accumap is available, but it does not yet have March figures.  Thus the release of data may not be as current as I have implied.  Nikehercules tells us that the software is expensive. I did a quick search of IHS.  Here is what they say about their feed of government data. Canada

[freedom45]

Thanks for all the responses including inbox. I am of the understanding that #s are fed to AB govt monthly or more regularly and there was a means for certain parties to access that information in advance of public. Hope I'm wrong.

[adamsight]

If this is actually the case then I would say the company has an onus to update investors as often as it updates this does it not?

[Risky_Business]

I just got off the phone with a good friend who also is a reservoir/production engineer with access to Accumap.  The latest production information that is available is Feb 2014.  Usually a 2 month delay on production figure updates. So the same information is available to all investors...at least for the next release (may).  Unless you know someone at the company that is willing to

[nikehercules]

I'll post more detailed numbers when I'm back I'm canada, From memory, the fiscal Q3 2013 loss was 1.5 million on approximately 4700 bbls/day. lutes mentioned this during the third quarter conference call in October. This included payments on all long terms debt at the time.