Sandstorm Metals & Energy Ltd STTYF

Should I stay or should I go?

[bargainhunts]

Greetings. Long time lurker, first time posting. 

What a debacle with Colossus. I have been pondering this weekend what to do with my very large SND position (I had almost a third of my portfolio in it - now underwater almost 70%).

The way I see it, here are the pros and the cons:

PROS:
- We should have 10 million cash within 6 months, as per the recent conference call
- The Donner NSR cash flows 4 million a year conservatively. With a little upside in the stated mine life of 7 years (10-20 is more realistic I think) and a recovery at some point in commodity prices, this NSR alone is probably worth close to the current market cap of 40 million. 
- Possible recoveries from Thunderbird, Colossus, etc
- Colossus is not dead yet - they may still get financing (Colossus shareholders are toast, but that's not our problem)
- All of the above means we have more than enough to pay the bills and hunker down for a couple of years if needed until the market turns. 
- Streaming is a great business model. Mangement is smart (although I question this recently) and has plenty of skin in the game (Nolan recently bought more shares).

CONS: 
- ALL our major streams have now blown up spectacularly. Even if the commodity market were to suddenly turn around in 2014, SND is not going to have enough cash to do new deals (Canadian Zinc stream etc) and take advantage of it (this is REALLY unfortunate as there will be potential to do some spectacular deals, I am sure).
- Raising more capital at this share price would be extremely dilutive. 
- Bad decisions by management. What on earth were they doing lending so much to Colossus before we even had an N 43-101 to derisk the project? Sure, this is a once in several decades perfect storm that nobody foresaw, but risk management seems to have gone out the window.
- Still no signs at all of a turnaround in the financing environment, and hard to see that happening any time soon with the Fed likely to taper in January, etc.

Bottom line: I am going to hold, but I am certainly not buying more at this price. (different story if we fell another 20-30%). I still think this is going to be a good investment on a 10 year horizon, but I think it's going to take a few years for the company to dig itself out of a very deep hole.

[ideal2u]

Everybody's gotta do their own thing in times like these, I too had a good chunk of my portfolio into SND, I made the decision to take my loses and move on. Couldn't stand getting up every morning and see more and more being chipped away from the recourse sector, if your weighted heavy in these stocks I'm sure you know what I mean. 2 years is a long time to hold a stock that isn't

[MidasMulligan]

Hey everybody, I'm disappointed as much as anyone else (bought too many shares at around 4,7 USD...) but let's be rational here. If we were to value SND from the perspective of a private buyer, the now company looks undervalued IMHO. Market value: 37,5 mil. USD cash in 6 monhts: 10 mil. USD debt: 0 USD enterprise value: 27,5 mil. USD so for about 27,5 mil. USD a private buyer would

[doomz78]

so is it time to bottom pick?   I would say yes.   Small amounts.  I may buy 3000 shares in the next few months.  As long as theses guys have "learnt" a few lessons.  this has been a really stinky deal for shareholders.  All small venture mines have been obliterated.  Really has sucked.  Current valuations are worth some interest. 

[bob4977]

I bought some more today. There was a  lot of down volume on this stock and am not sure why. CSI was up today so I just assume someone with a lot of shares wanted out of SND and I would like to thank him for the cheap shares. Hopefully, these cheap shares do not get a lot cheaper in the near future. Bob

[cloudrunner]

I hope you bought a lot bob... nice bounce, are you lucky or REALLY smart?  Would this be management with a guilt complex buying?? No news... what's the deal with the 20% move?

[bob4977]

Hi Cloudrunner, Its hard to figure out what caused the big move up today. I would just have to assume that someone with a lot of money wanted in. I ended up selling half  my shares today. I took a quick profit and we will see which way this stock goes. Bob

[fruitvale3067]

I just cannot buy more shares at this time. I'll need to see how Gordon Creek and Serra Pelada play out before investing any more here. Just to many unknows at this point and I would prefer to miss the bottom on news of the streams being worked out then contniue to try to guess the bottom with no news on either.      

[bargainhunts]

I decided to buy some more after the drop below $1, only to find out that I am currently blocked from trading in SND by my employer. I bought a bundle of Sandstorm Gold instead. Despite what has been a horrible 12 months, I still have a lot of confidence in Nolan and the management. 

[Thundersole]

I'm sure I'm not the only one wondering who you work for........

[bargainhunts]

I could tell you, but I'd have to kill you :) In retrospect under $1 was just a ridiculously cheap level.