Advantage Energy Ltd T.AAV.DB

TD Notes

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The Transition Tracker

Energy Transition Charts, Comparatives, and Commentary

TD Investment Conclusion

In the following pages, we summarize several pricing benchmarks and data sets that are relevant to our Clean Technology coverage universe, as well as provide an update on sector valuations and comparatives, and recent announcements from Clean Technology sector companies.

Notable Changes in Pricing Benchmarks

1) Low Carbon Fuel Incentive: California LCFS prices decreased to US$72.75 (-10.4% w/w). As it relates to low-carbon fuels, we note the following:

• RNG: Henry Hub natural gas prices declined 15.2% w/w, and together with the weakening D3 RIN (-7.2% week ended Feb 3) and California LCFS, RNG implied pricing declined on average by 8.7% w/w. Details provided in Exhibit 2.

• Biodiesel/Renewable Diesel: Similarly, biodiesel and renewable diesel implied margins decreased on average by 28.3% and 25.0%, respectively, as a result of declining diesel prices (-14.1% w/w) and D4 RIN prices (-7.4% week ended Feb 3). Details provided in Exhibit 3.

2) LCFS January Program Data:

• British Columbia: Featured an average monthly credit price of $425.07 (-4.2% m/ m; Exhibit 1g) with 35,098 credits transacted (-55.6% vs. TTM avg).

• Oregon: Featured an average monthly credit price of US$116.98 (Exhibit 1c) that remained relatively flat month-over-month with 212,109 credits transacted (+58.4% vs. TTM avg).

  3) Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM): Despite the recent negative media headlines around the VCM and REDD projects, N-GEO pricing increased to US$2.61/tCO2e (+43.4% w/w) and is again trading at a premium to the GEO (US$2.37/tCO2e). Details provided in Exhibit 4d.

  4) EV Battery Metals Pullback: In Exhibit 5, we highlight the recent pullback in EV battery metals with lithium, cobalt, and nickel pricing down month-to-date by 4.8%, 20.8%, and 4.1%, respectively.

  Clean Technology Sector News and Highlights

  1) Advantage Energy's (AAV-T, BUY, $16.00 target price) subsidiary, Entropy, provided capital and operating data on its Glacier CCS project (full report).

  2) Exro Technologies (EXRO-T, not covered) has established a channel partnership agreement with Greentech Renewables Southwest for marketing, sales, distribution, and servicing of Exro's Cell Driver Energy Storage System (press release).

  3) Linde (LIN-US, not covered) will invest $1.8 billion in the development of infrastructure to supply clean hydrogen to OCI's (OCI-NL, not covered) blue ammonia plant in Beaumont, Texas, which is expected to be operational in 2025 (press release).