Air Canada T.AC

AC Capacity deployed

[Rouge10]

Refer to the link https://flightaware.com/live/fleet/ACA?;offset=40;order=ident;sort=ASC at time about 1005 on 9th Sept 2021

1. It showed 67 flights in air (means 67 aircraft are flying).
2. About 30 of those were widebody aircraft (All but 1 or 2 on internaional routes)
3. Remaining 37 on DOM/Transborder routes

Air Canada has fleet of about 173 aircarft as per their website today. Approx 78 are widbody and 85 are narrow body.

For every aircraft in air there are aircraft on ground for flight preparation, maintenance and back up planes. 

Narrowbody mostly flies shorter flights. Example for every flight between YYZ and YUL there will be another aircraft on ground for next flight prep. For long haul (Widebody) one can assume no aircraft on ground and this will be very very conservative. For 2-3 hour flights, one can assume 0.25 to 0.5 aircrafts on ground. About 5-8 aircrafts (when operating at full capacity) on ground as back up and about 10% fleet in maintenance. Hence, 

Flight preparation = 0 (WB) + 20 (NB: more weight for short hauls like YYZ-YUL, YYZ-YOW, etc) = 20
Back up = 3-5 (approx. 3-5% of the operating fleet)
Maintenace = 10 (approx.10% of the operating fleet)

Total = 67 (Flying) + 20 (flight prep) + 4 (back up) + 10 (Maintenance) = 101. 

Comparing apples to apples, AC is running approx. 58% (101/178) of their fleet. This does not include Sky Service, Private fleet, other fleets. Assume similar proportions for other fleets.

It seems their International operations has picked decently and this will add to short haul runs too to distribute pax onwards of the hubs. It means the above operating model is not baised towards widebody fleet (higher number of seats), infact it is conservative as WB has more seats than NB.

You can assumptions on the load factors. But at 58% of fleet in operation, one can expect 60% of seats in operations. I have not calculated the impact of departure of 767 and arrival of 737 in fleet. Total fleet capacity should be similar or higher compared to 2019 in number of seats.

I can comfortable say that AC is running at more than 50% (Conservatively speaking) of 2019 capacity as of today and will go higher in few weeks with more flights coming. From their history in last few years they run efficient operation and will have decent load factors.

Positive cash flow is not far.

[TradeForex]

Currently, 3 YYZ-HKG cargo flights,1 YYZ-HKG passenger flight and 3 HKG-YYZ cargo flights in flight. Busy route.

[TheGrapeOne]

And they are loosing money on every one!   congrats

[Rouge10]

As of 12 noon, there are 82 aircraft in air and 40 are widebody. It means that there were 15 aircraft on ground being prepared for flights when I wrote the first message. Apples to apples, I think 50% capacity was too conservative and we are more closer to 60% capacity of 2019. 

[thinkyourmoney]

We passed thru the Montreal hub in June.  There many aircraft parked on the hanger tarmacs, Most were 737 Max aircraft.   We just passed through YUL again yesterday.  There was nothing parked except an Embrier.  I looked as we taxied in and out and there was only 1 aircraft in all of those hangers.   If there were aircraft parked up at the terminal, the Air Canada ones

[thinkyourmoney]

It is 3 months later and this nonsensical value plunge for AC stock continues.  We just did another transcontinental trip and there is lots going that one can observe on this intuitive level that indicates the dire predictions for Air Canada are fabricated. Back in June there were 5 flights each day each way for the YYZ-YVR-YYZ route.  Now there are at least 10 scheduled per day. 

[Invinceableone]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Stuffitnow]

Thanking yourself again ? Seriously, how many nicks do you have ?

[Pachuko]

While I appreciate the time and effort of the post there are some glaring inaccuracies and a number of points I would disagree with. Dire predictions are not fabricated they are simply predictions. They are what they are. Opinion based on what someone sees as the basis for making such a statement. You have done exactly the same except are making a positive outlook prediction. You could just as

[Invinceableone]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Stuffitnow]

Dude, you're a troll. A pumping troll :)