AHF.R:CA T.AHF.R

AHF valuation

[virginie]

combined entity AUM = $3.1B

valuation based on AUM should be between 1.5% to 2%, that is the market standard. If we take the more generous 2%, the company value shouyld be $3.1Bx2% = $41.8M

Substract debt of $20.2M (this is how much debt will be outstanding if the debenture holders accept the deal) =» $41.8M - $20.2M = $21.6M net val;ue for the resulting company.

Divide that value by the number of outstanding shares post merger of 260M shares (this is in the press release) and we get $21.6M / 260M = 8.3 cents.

This is just a summary valuation based on numbers, it doesnt take into account synergies, Mr. Canavan, etc., but remember the generous valuation % of 2% rather than the more conservative 1.5% (in which case, the share price comes out to be 2.4 cents.

I fail to see why this should be undervalued, and again, I am not talking about the upside potential presented by new management (which may or may not materialize), I am just trying to value it on what is known today.  I have been watching this stock for a long time, but have never bought in. Any comments are appreciated, as long as they're based on facts and not opinions or "feelings" ;-)

thanks.

[virginie]

In addition, since AFH will own 41% of the resulting company, I guess you have to take 41% of 8.3 cents...

[ARIMA11]

Hi Virginie, Excellent analysis. Is there a way to quantify the "upside potential" of the merger on the sp you provided in the analysis above? The new release of the mentioned "meaningful cost savings", I am trying to determine what impact this may have.  They also mention "cross-selling opportunities" alot of this stuff is very hard to measure at this point