Aimia Inc T.AIM

state of affairs

[nkbourbaki]

Interesting to see steady, programmatic trading over the past few sessions around $2.35. This price seems to reflect one of two expectations: (1) current management will retain control and continue to burn capital on risky investments, or (2) Mithaq will seize control and do their own brand of stupid.

If the current team survives the AGM then I don't think further destructive investments are in the cards.  I assume the PP investors want to at least recover their cost and they seem committed to monetizing what they can from today's assets.   

Right now it seems pretty likely that Mithaq will take control. However they now have their hands full with PLCE and may be content to support a well-articulated strategy. Hard to know.  They're trapped here along with everyone else, and I don't get the impression they have a cogent plan for Aimia.  Big question is whether all bridges with current mgmt have been burned by the legal shenanigans.

This should be a no-brainer investment at $2.30 but there's been so much value destruction that this is far from the case.   BOD, lawyers & Paladin continue to be the only ones extracting value. 

Q1 should be out in 2-3 weeks so we'll see where they're at.   I expect Tufropes results will continue to be well below investor day expectations, and Bozzetto to be "in line".  So it'll all be about articulating a strategy for recovery.

[luscar99]

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[Growthnvalue]

I've lost hope in Mithaq and don't have any confidence in them saving Aimia shareholders. What they've done with PLCE is baffling. I suspect that they tripped the debt convenants by accident when they increased their stake so rapidly in the stock. They could have walked away with a massive gain, assuming they weren't restricted for some odd reason early on. Instead they now have

[nedstar71]

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[nedstar71]

I would assume they are betting on Q1 results / strategy / carrot dangle will incline shareholders to give them one more chance when they finally schedule the meeting.  Or they're actively engaged with Mithaq and will be willingly reconstituting the board giving them a couple of seats, thereby saving some of their own.

[nkbourbaki]

I agree.  I don't at all see Mithaq as a "white knight".  Rather it seems they've stumbled into a couple pretty big messes. I'm not too concerned about the AGM. Deadline is end of June and it's not like they can avoid it.  I'm sure they're very aware of their precarious position and I assume they'll try to find some common ground with Mithaq