AltaGas Ltd T.ALA

Texas Grid Failure

[rfguysd]

Adding  to the comments made on the Texas grid.

I have followed  the Texas power grid situation with interest  these last few days.  The 2 websites  that you need  to review and understand are
1) https://www.ercot.com/news/releases  .    The Texas electrical regulator stating  the timeframes and amount of generation capacity offline.  Talks about the  customer load and demand.  Warns all facilities  to  get prepare for  cold temperatures  and be prepared
2) https://www.eia.gov/beta/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/balancing_authority/ERCO  .

Make  sure you look at the demand and supply  logs  for Texas. 

Let  me give  you the background  and  then  you can make  up  your own opinion.

ERCO give  several  warnings  of incoming cold weather. Get prepared.  On the days prior  the grid  was able  to meet  the customer demand but  the  demand  was peaking  near or greater than  the maximum capacity that could be generated.  Texas  made it to Feb14 afternoon  untouched.    The night of Feb14 and early Feb15 the temperature  dropped  further  and  the wind  lessened.  From the service logs you will notice that the wind power generation begins  to drop at  a  fairly constant rate.   On the demand side  ,  because the temperature was  dropping,  a  higher load  was needed…. even though people  were  going  to bed.   The  electrical grid  was  able to handle  the wind turbine drop  in output power and  the increase in demand by  adjusting the gas turbine  generation.  So  for  the grid was holding  , but then around  2 oclock in the morning  ,  a load  drop in gas turbine power occur.   What would  cause this drop?    This  is  the area  that is speculated.  Since  all the pipes  in Texas  is above ground….3 days of  cold weather near 0 C ,  pipes  begun  to freeze in the early morning hours of Feb15.  Water pipes  for the intakes of gas /coal/ power plants  and  there is also  discussion of gas pipes freezing since most natural gas lines  to gas plants are  above ground and are not dehydrated (ie  contain water vapor).  Low gas pressure  to the gas Turbines.

So  some of  the other obvious questions are:  why did ERCOT  not have additional spare capacity?  And why there was not agreement with other utilities to import electrical power? 
Of  course ,   people  deserve  to be fired.  Who design the grid  and its reliability should be fired.  There are a lot of people in trouble  for thinking cold weather doesn’t happen in Texas.  Proven severl times  wrong over the years.

PS.   Yes  the wind Turbines  were  frozen  to the point where zero output capacity due to the cold and rainy conditions.  But  the problem is more than the wind turbines failing as noteable above.

GLTA
RFguy

[Capharnaum]

Being kind of an expert regarding supply planning and load balancing, I would go easy on throwing blame around. When you plan grid and supply design, you plan for certain conditions (temperature, reliability, etc). It's easy to say that you should plan for harsher conditions, but the incremental cost is often crazy (say 5% increase in conditions would mean a 15% raise in energy rates across

[rfguysd]

Capharnaum:  Your points  are noted  and I  would agree.    My intentions were not  to blame one group or another  but  to highlight the events  leading   to  the  grid failure.  I  can say that there is a lot of blame  to  pass around  on  this disaster. How many  lives  lost in Texas?&

[yggdrasill]

You say the cost would have been too high to winterize the plants and I believe you. But that's why you need a strong regulating body to force these changes. You can't leave it up to the generators because obviously the cost to them is great, and they only need to think about their own bottom line. However this crisis hasn't just affected their own bottom line. It's affected all

[GunnerG]

Electricity generation is usually a regulated industry.  They are guaranteed a rate of return on their investments in infrastructure.  They continually offer expanded services and replace aged equipment.   All these expenses typically need to be approved by the regulating authority and rate increases will arise from these expense and the guaranteed rate of return. The

[Capharnaum]

Like I said before, I don't know the particularities of Texas energy distribution (that's my disclaimer, as they could have specific flaws in their system that means the following wouldn't apply to them). However, you'd be surprised that regulators are often the ones putting the breaks on extra investments in supply (to improve network responses and reliability when facing extreme

[yggdrasill]

Texs has been evading regulation on winterization since 1989 at the least, as this 2011 article shows: https://www.statesman.com/article/20110411/NEWS/304119704 You know more about electric grids and their workings than I do, and I understand the limitations of wind power, but there is a reason why Texas is out of power and not Oklahoma or Alaska or basically anybody else. Oklahoma derives 34

[Capharnaum]

Like I said, you usually need a back up source for your wind for peak power requirements. You can also have external contracts where you buy the extra for the wind shortfalls. As to Oklahoma, according to data from 2018, most of their needs are met with Natural Gas. (https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=OK#tabs-1) They have a net outflow of electricity that's about 75% of their wind power

[ol_griz]

This is the problem in a nutshell.  How do you get an independent regulator with strength enough to resist the policies of idiot libertarian politicians, pacs, and tax-hating citizens groups?  The risk vs. cost calculation was either ignorant, reckless or both in this case.  

[GunnerG]

Well Ercot had it covered in their Energy Emergency Alerts document:   Extreme: temperatures are nearly 10 degrees in Dallas, below 20 degrees in Austin/San Antonio and nearing 20 degrees in Houston During the winter months, tight grid conditions may also result from reduced generator availability due to weather-related factors. Extreme cold temperatures, restrictions by natural gas

[snewguy]

Texas wanted to be sole king of their power domain and were not linked to the federal grid so tgey cant 'import' it..  So not subject to federal regulation either, and having been thru this a decade ago, its clear, profit ' now '  exceeded the likelihood of another such occurrence..  feel bad for the ppl.. the ted cruzs excluded, it shows again, the real mass poverty

[marketsense]

So much for the "kingdom"  when it is built on a foundation of sand.   Not burying gas lines and other infrastructure or insulating piping is just plain stupid and gambling with peoples lives.    Always the same.   By not winterizing,   you saved a lot of capex but when you get an extreme cold weather event,   your decision gets exposed for what it is

[rfguysd]

I  have enjoy reading everyones' comments .  Insightful  and well articulated. We  are all concerned about  our fellow Americans   and we pray for their well being. The Texas  grid  has failed  more than once already,,,, several times in the last decade.  Perhaps,  the solution does not lay with the politicans and regulators but

[GunnerG]

"climate change" is responsible for everything in todays environment and in the future. I live in Canada and always laugh at how the greens talk of wind and solar will do it all, in only a few short years. I like to do my part but the finges are just annoying.  Most buildings are heated by gas but gas is bad.  Could cut major by going from coal generation to gas but the

[Teccing]

Nothing like the reality of political science.

[BSdetector2016]

Texas seems to have a disproportionate number of stupid people in high places making decisions. "Hey Ted the house is cold and I wanna go to Mexico".

[Bushman3333]

Ted Cuz Should be Ship out to Calgary to feeze his nuts, that The City where he comes from, where he belong to have a good lesson, Longley Ranger. 

[Bambam3333]

Bush man=pu@ssyman you hit nail on head hiha long live New founland