AltaGas Ltd T.ALA

Ferndale Port --Altagas Export Terminal

[rfguysd]

Vessel Covette  tanker left FERNDALE port on Thurs. Apr1st   9am....a 3 day fill period.  Next LPG tanker is unknown but is expected to arrive  in  a  period of 10 days....April 7^th- April9th. 
 
The interesting question is whether or not to include this delivery in the 1^st qtr.  If  its  FOB origin,  which is likely, Altagas will be allowed to claim whatever is on the tanker at midnight March31.  I  suspect  that the tanker  was loaded late March31  and waited for tugs  to arrive  in the morning to be escorted out to sea.
 
The Ferndale port has been increasing its throughput over the last few months from 30k to 50k bbls/day. (that is why an  4 period rollover is used to average a  shorter time period than 3month cycle).   In  order to increase throughput beyond 50k bbl/day,  Altagas  will need to find additional US  propane customers in the area….. maybe from the Bakken field  area to export more propane than what is allocated on the Canadian export license.   
 
 
Arrival  Departure     Vessel             TYPE      GT        Barrels    Days between    Ave Rate 
                                                                                                          Arrivals           throughput             
Jan29     Feb4        Captain Markos     LPG      47173     599,000
Feb17     Feb21      Cratis                    LPG       48963     622,000       19
Mar2       Mar7        Clermont               LPG       47379     602,000       13
Mar16     Mar20      Captain Markos    LPG       47173     599,000       14               
Mar29     Apr1         Corvette                LPG       48060     610,000       10                43.3k/day
April9 (est.)               ????                    LPG         ????          ???         11 (est)        50.5k/day
 
*Assuming 12.7 barrels / metric tonne
*606,400 barrels /12.0days= 50,500 barrels / day   implied throughput rate of Ferndale. Using running average over 4 fill periods.

Nameplate capacity  50k/day        Altagas has updated the nameplate to >50k bbls/day.                                                                                  What is the upper limit?
Canadian Export license : 46k/day
Calculated  rate of export :50.5k/day
US Export licence not required (?)

GLTA
RFguy

[bossu]

I assume a LPG tanker between January 1 to Capitain Marcos arrival on  Jan 29 . The Lpg tankers for an average of 47 774 tons for 5 and are much bigger that at Ripet At Ripet the average of 42 925  tons for  27 Lpg Tanker ( 2020) General Note if there were no LPG Tanker  between Jan1 and Jan 29 and Corvette included in the Qd would mean 303 200 tons . Pretty good showing 

[imal4it]

 The CLERMONT arrived on the17th of January and departed on the 21st

[bossu]

Thank you Ima4it. It confir that there we 2 In January 1 in February and 3 in March including Corvette.Total 6 so 302 000 + Clermont 44 000 for 346 000 tons  But LPG Tankers at Ferndale much larger and this is very good. In summary  Ferndale        346 000 T Ripet              369 000 T Total           

[GunnerG]

Thanks imal4it, did you have anything else in Jan 2021? My records only list from Feb 2021.

[imal4it]

Hi Gunner, this is what I have: Mar - CLERMONT    2 - 8th          CAPTAIN MARKOS NL 16 - 21st          CORVETTE 26 - Apr 1st   Feb - CAPTAIN MARKOS NL 1 - 4th          CRATIS 18 - 21st   Jan - CLERMONT 17 - 21st I am certain that there was only one tanker in Jan.

[imal4it]

If you look up clermont lpg on vesselfinder.com, it still shows january's port call for Ferndale.

[imal4it]

If you look up clermont lpg on vesselfinder.com, it still shows january;s port call for Ferndale.

[GunnerG]

Sorry rfguysd, didn't see you posted about corvette  before mine. I agree your numbers of 4, maybe 5 if you include Corvette for Q1 numbers at Ferndale.

[rfguysd]

Thanks   Imal4it.  I  have  updated  the table to include the month of Jan. .    Please note  that  Ferndale  is  nearing the nameplate  capacity of 50k/bbls  and that  the Altagas presentation is  listing the FERNDALE  facility as >50kbls /day. Vessel Covette  tanker left FERNDALE port on Thurs

[GunnerG]

Seems odd to me that you include barrels of the first line but not days.   I believe your are overstating the average rate by omitting the days.

[rfguysd]

GunnerG:  The calculation is a 4 fill  moving average for the throughput at Ferndale.  Another way to describe it is the “daily” throughput of Ferndale with a moving 4 fill period to smooth out the variations due to ship and railcar delays. This  should give  an immediate look  at Ferndale  to see what are  Altagas’s intentions at Ferndale.    You&