Post by
Johnwith30years on Apr 23, 2021 1:21pm
Thinking about Earnings for ALA this quarter
Assume for a moment that they ar eon track to meet the high end of their range. Then assume that nothing has changed from last year in terms of sources of income ( I know that's not correct but stay with me.)
Last year in the first quarter they delivered 38.09% of their annual total EBITDA and 55.63 of their annual earnings.
So to meet the target of 1.5 billion EBITDA they must deliver (using this model) $571.35 million EBITDA this quarter up from 499 in 2020.
They must also deliver ( assuming they meet their high end earnings per share target of $0.862 per share in Qtr 1
Analysts have been looking for about $.92 per share or roughly 6.7% higher than the .862 per share figure.
But if the company has been cautious and propane prices have risen strongly in the quarter and if they managed to exceed their targets by 10% throughout the year they could show EBITDA as high as 628.485 million EBITDA which would be spectacular. I myself think they may come in up to 4% higher than analysts have suggested on the EPS or about $.96 cents. and an Ebitda lower than 628 but higher than 575. But remember if they just come inwith .86 cents per share they could be viewed as on target to meet their own goals but to meet the street they will need more than .92 Remember also that .862 keeps them on target for another dividend raise of about 4% next December.
I am hopeful they may just move their targets upward..
Comment by
bossu on Apr 23, 2021 2:04pm
This is exactly what I'm thinking . But there is a BIG catalyst that could mix the cards : What will be the EBITDA from the Petrogas acquisition .Around $ 225 M for 2021 but what percentage for the Q1 .
Comment by
Johnwith30years on Apr 23, 2021 2:08pm
Didn't you find it was about 39%
Comment by
bossu on Apr 23, 2021 2:56pm
Hope this 39% is real but when you mutiply by $ 225 M it become a pretty big number ! Hi Paul, Thank you for reaching out and for your support. The seasonality figures that we disclosed within our guidance presentation (here) for EBITDA included Petrogras contribution as well (Q1 ~39%; Q2 ~17%; Q3 ~14%; Q4: ~30%). Regards, AltaGas Investor Relations
Comment by
Johnwith30years on Apr 23, 2021 2:12pm
Also the stronger earnings I have projected take into account part of that increase coming from Petrogas. Much of the 30 million in savings they also project will need some time to factor in I am thinking so I added in just 15% of those savings in a more detailed model.