AltaGas Ltd T.ALA

The next three quarters

[Johnwith30years]

and thanks to Bossu for causing me to do some detailed work over the weekend.

I will venture here that for the year the total earning sper share will be higher than management estimated
which after all was their midpoint estimate and Randy made a comment that if things styed strong they could be higher.   I see a new range coming and it will move to 1.91 to 2.05 as per my calculations.
This is the sunny scenario but it is well within reasonable expectations now.  If the current forward PE remained at 14.73 that equates to a new stock pric erange of $28.13 - $30.20

So my max upside for th eyear at $28 may have been a bit too conservative. I am assuming the Canadian dollar stays roughly where it is now. Som ehistoric ratios could move it towards even $35 but as you know I think that is a bridge too far.  Look for higher earnings than last year in the next three quarters. To meet management's current upper range of $1.80 and they have already completed  $1.29 they have .51 to go for the rest of the year.  tof the year.   That means if they earn nothing this quarter and the next and 2 cents less lthan last year in the 4 th quarter  they will have met the upper guidance of management.  Do you still think my target for th eyear of 1.91 to 2.05 is too high???  With $2.00 do you think they might bump the dividend more than 4%  to perhaps 8%?

This would give a dividend of about $1.08 and on a $30 price the dividend would become 3.6%   ARE THESE REASONABLE GUESTIMATES?? THoughts??

[bossu]

Johnwith30 years, Sorry that you had to make some overtime during the past weekend! To be honest with you I was hoping to have some comments from you . What you say looks to me ''conservative''and obtainable. Strong Q1 2021 results is a good way to star the year and according to the seasonaly of ALA second and third quarter to be weaker to finish higher in the Q4 As you say a

[Johnwith30years]

Hi I am not trying to be either optimistic or pessimistic but as realistic as I can be. SO if it reaches 2.05 per share for the year I will be well pleased or even with 1.91  If it reaches those numbers we will not need a dividend boost beyond the 4% they subscribed to becasue everyone will be able to see the growth profile and the debt coming down as if they do not boost higher than 4% with

[JayBanks]

  I feel the dividend will fall in the 1.02-1.08 range you pointed out. I think they will remain very conservative and 1.08 would be the hope, but I'll say 30% chance of happening. 1.05 = .0875/month would be my 50-60% guess... I could see a number below it, but that would be a disappointment. A long time ago when they were discussing the acquisition of WGL and major div cut

[Johnwith30years]

Its a little hard to say how management will view dividend increases beyond their already announced plan to increase dividends by 4% per year and seeing that as sustainable. I think it is more likely that they continue to bring down debt but there could be a case for a one time special dividend as well which means they don't have to permanently up the base cost of dividends beyond the 4% even