Post by
Johnwith30years on Oct 19, 2021 1:11pm
Great news!
I have just completed my total year analysis of ALA based on my various working assumptions and I hope it will not surprise you too much to learn that a total EPS for 2021 can with quite modest assumptions come in above $2.00! Let's assume $2.00.
Now we know that Randy in the last conference call indicated he expected earnings to
likely come in at the high end of their range which called for $1.80 if certain prices held.
But consider that we already have 1.37 in the bag for 2021. Then assume a modest 12% growth over earnings in the 3rd and 4th quarters for 2021 over th eprevious year .
Just using this quick and dirty method to back up a detailed analysis this gives us .04 in quarter 3 last year or .0448 for this year and 53 cents in the 4th quarter last year which at 12% increase is 59.36 cents for 2021. If you add the 1.37 already earned this year to the 3rd and 4th estimates one arrives at: $2.0084
At 15 times earnings thi sequates to a figure of $30.13 stock price which also allows very significant room for dividend distribution should they choose to distribute their capital that way. This is why you just cannot afford not to be fully invested in ALA. Even with fears of higher interest rates an earnings of $2.00 per share will not be ignored if I am correct. This very positive understanding of ALA will likely not be appreciated fully by the market until they announce either their forth quarter earnings or their December Plan and guidance for 2022. But the drivers for this earnings are all in place now. Cheers
Comment by
masfortuna on Oct 20, 2021 9:28pm
Ok Thx John. Personally I was hoping the it's "a beat" but your take is definitely a lot more pleasing:) mas