Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp T.AQN

Alternate Symbol(s): AQN | T.AQN.PR.A | T.AQN.PR.D | AGQPF

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. is a Canada-based diversified international generation, transmission, and distribution company. The Company through its two business groups, the Regulated Services Group, and the Renewable Energy Group, provides sustainable energy and water solutions through its portfolio of electric generation, transmission, and distribution utility investments to over one... see more

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Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp > TD

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Post by retiredcf on May 07, 2021 3:59pm

TD

Have a US$18.50 target. GLTA

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

(AQN-N, AQN-T) US$15.75 | C$19.16

Noisy Q1 Results Undermined by February U.S. Storm

Event

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. reported Q1/21 results last night.

Q1/21 adjusted EPS of $0.20 was slightly below our forecast of $0.21 and the consensus forecast of $0.22. Q1/21 adjusted EBITDA of $282.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $300 million but ahead of the consensus forecast of $273.5 million. Both of Algonquin's reported figures exclude a $53 million negative impact from the February storm in Texas on the Senate wind facility.
As expected, 10% dividend increase announced. Algonquin's annual dividend (paid quarterly) increases to US$0. 6824/share – up from US$ 0.6204 /share. The increase is consistent with the company’s annual target.
Conference Call: Today at 10:00 am ET: 1-833-670-0721 or 825-312-2060 (link to slides).

Impact: SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE

Q1/21 EPS was slightly below our forecast and the consensus estimate. We speculate that many estimates in the consensus figure excluded the impact of the February's extreme weather event on results. Our estimates included the impact of that event, but also assumed an arguably excessive seasonal weighting of contributions from newly completed assets and acquisitions to Q1/21 (mitigating the storm impact on our forecast). We believe management's 2021 guidance range remains intact, but anticipate it will be a focus on the call.

Details

Q1/21 results. Renewable power generation was 21% below long-term averages (LTA). Regulated Services benefited from the ESSAL and Bermuda Electric acquisitions, as well as rate increases.
Algonquin did not reference its 2021 guidance in its Q1/21 filings. With the Q4/20 release in March, the company guided to 2021 EPS of $0.71-$0.76 in 2021 (+15% y/y at the mid-point), before the impact of the Texas weather event. The storm was expected to have a negative EPS impact of $0.06, before any potential recoveries.
Impact of Texas weather event ($53.4 million pre-tax) was within management's initial guidance range. On February 19, Algonquin announced an estimated adjusted EBITDA adverse financial impact (non-recurring) of $45- $55 million.
Significant capital projects completed. The 492 MW Maverick Creek project was fully commissioned in April, while Empire's final project acquisitions related to the 600 MW of wind in its "Greening the Fleet" initiatives are expected to close this month.