Aecon Group Inc T.ARE

Sorry sellers - globe today :)

[Gabriel]

CIBC World Markets analyst Jacob Bout is “constructive” on the Canadian engineering and construction industry heading into 2024, citing “the growing backlog levels, high exposure to resilient transportation, environment/water (and/or nuclear) end-markets, strong balance sheet positions, and ability to protect/grow margins.”

In a research report released Friday, he upgraded Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) to an “outperformer” recommendation from “neutral” previously to “reflect significant potential upside in forward results and backlog in the back end of 2024 and 2025, as well as the transition to a much less riskier business model.”

“While legacy fixed-price project risk remains near term, cash flow should improve,” Mr. Bout.

His target for Aecon shares rose to $18 from $12.50. The average on the Street is $13.21.

[Alexcanada]

really ? 50% increase of his target ? Don't get me wrong, we all know where this is going but I think that M. Bout was late to the party. In any case, couldn't help myself and just bought some ATRL shares

[Gabriel]

I don't think, it is a fact that the LSTK uncertainty is weighting over 1B or 15$ on the stock. Everyone knows this. What everyone is not convinced of is whether we will have more losses. The market is attributing 1B. I think we are below 100m in the worse case scenario. So we have another 900m market cap to close. That's a double from here. Targets will be raised above 20$ in 2024

[Gabriel]

In case anyone has any doubt. Glad to share that I put my money where my mouth is. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s1xqumyejc3l38spu8oh0/IMG_3798.jpg?rlkey=qysensujy4dywyt3z7heu6je7&dl=0

[Henrye]

100% fully agreed! Terrible time to sell unless one needs funds! Anyone that has spare funds should buy asap before all analysts start to drastically adjust their forecasts in the 20$ plus plus range.   Gabriel what are your latest thoughts on Aecon being acquired in whole or in parts in 2024 by global / domestic large players? Interest rates will start to trend downwards, ARE is

[Gabriel]

In a nutshell, potential and interested acquirers (who is not interested to acquire the artistocracy of the construction business in Canada with the best margins in the industry) actually doubt that institutional shareholders would accept to sell until the LSTKs are over and the price is back to "normal". They know that smart money controls the majority of the shares and will not accept

[Gabriel]

You wrote : " Buyers would get an amazing turn key operation with endless opportunities and upsides and already fully adjusted for the future transition in North America." We are the buyers. We will benefit from the upside. We will collect the dividends. Mourn the sellers and congratulate the buyers of Aecon, Have a great WE everyone, Gabs

[Henrye]

I truly was hoping for your response that is so logical and makes sense.  My preference is for Aecon not to sell and for us    (Shareholders) to enjoy the ride with the enormous upside that so far did not scratch the surface! And reinvest the dividends along the way! 2024 should prove to be successful for ARE ( finally & well deserved) Gabriel, onto another question. Would

[Gabriel]

You are correct. The backlog announced during the Q3 CC did not include two recent wins which close to  CEO of 12T family of funds Blackrock interviewed on Wall Street Week yesterday sees huge growth in infrastructure, buys 12.5B infrastructure fund. No wonder the Aecon people I spoke to are so upbeat with the Oaktree deal. https://youtu.be/nH4qAVaO3lg?si=FwZRjv3nbpHDJmfh  

[Gabriel]

.. close to double the backlog if I remember well.

[Gabriel]

https://aeconcomfiles.blob.core.windows.net/web-live/docs/default-source/investor-briefcase/are---q3-2023-ir-presentation.pdf Top of page 9 says backlog excludes the Go Expansion OnCorr, Scarborough Subway Extension SRS and the Darlington SMRs. We have 50% of the construction and 25% of the O&M of the Go Expansion project and the budget is 15.7B. You have above 4-5B here. https://www

[Henrye]

Thanks , great background backup information to confirm potential doubling of the backlog. Gabriel and my follow up question. If the construction consortium for Gordie Howe bridge was officially allowed 700 million budget adjustment, then would Aecon adjust in their year end backlog 20% additional backlog of 700$ million? 

[Gabriel]

Per generally accepted accounting principles, the cost to complete is regularly updated regardless of ongoing claims and the updated cumulative figure shared during the quarterly results. The backlog therefore included the additional cost. The cost to complete includes all costs to complete the project, such as labor, materials, equipment operating and depreciation cost and administrative costs

[Henrye]

Gabriel thanks for taking the time to so clearly communicate with me and no doubt countless of others. Your latest posts including Aecon positioned in the PLATINUM and their participation in top 100 infrastructure projects is beyond wild & IMPRESSIVE.  Your posts further reinforce my POSITIVE opinion on Aecon and to continue to ammas more shares while they are so discounted. As to