Aris Mining Corp T.ARIS

Not out of the woods just yet!

[oldmanmike]

Been following GCM/Aris about 5 yrs now. I haven't seen a financial Qtry report yet for the combined companies. My take is their earnings could be a little disappointing. Last GCM qtr was $0.13/shr on about 75M shares (aver. gold price about $1800). Aris about break even to a small loss on 7500 oz produced. Now, estimate I've seen is $0.13/shr but the float is about 135M shares and the average gold price is down to say $1675. I wouldn't be surprised to see $0.10 or less for 3rd qtr. Now historically PE ratio has 5 to 6. That would indicate a price of $2 to $2.4 per shr.

Right now technical charts show an inverted head and shoulders developing with a potental right shoulder leg down. This might co-inside with Dec Fed rate hike and tax loss selling season. The US dollar is starting to roll over but may get a little support with the next rate increase and hold the gold price down a bit.

I believe the real motivator will be interest expense on the Us debt, $31T, with interest expense going from 0.25% to say 5%. Granted this will take some time to develop but this represents a 20 fold increase on a society that hates new taxes and a government that runs a $1T additional debt annually.

End Result - Us dollar tanks even further. Gold in $US dollars goes to $2500 by Q3 2023 and Aris stock price $10 to $12 or better. What say you all?

[rotax1]

gcm q2 2022 net income 39 million eps 0.40 forget diluted share only the warrant 10 million at 2.21 the rest is like  4.50   5.70  6.xx  so 

[invest234]

"Now historically PE ratio has 5 to 6. That would indicate a price of $2 to $2.4 per shr." that was based on segovia production. when several long life 20+ year tier 1 like projects are added, the market cap increases and PE is allowed to rise based on assets not producing yet. you don't just say all the non-producing assets are worth zero and base PE just on the producing asset

[Thales12]

Not out of the woods yet ... and back in the dumper

[tobinator01]

Not that concerned with today's trade, here's why.  There was a 2.9 million share block at $3.10 then two 250k share blocks a few minutes later.  Char volume looks like a teenage boy seeing his first naked woman.  3.4 million shares went from an eager seller to new buyers that are institutions.  Now Aris doesn't have the overhang of those shares being dripped

[geezer21]

Over 3.8 million shares traded yesterday on a day when the stock market was roaring, the dollar down, and the price of gold dramatically rising. This huge trading volume was a significant spike above the average trading voloume of 341 thousiand. This was a dump into strength.  Someone or some wanted to unload and took advantage of an exceptionally strong day in the markets and strong rise

[lumpy13]

Fortunately, I bailed on this stock after years of disappointment.  Always so much promise and so little performance.   Couldn't trust mgmt as they always were undertaking financial machinations that were hard to understand and seemed to benefit the insiders at the cost of other shareholders. Maybe I'll be proved wrong, but invest at your own risk.   In my opinion, there

[prem124]

Management has changed

[oldmanmike]

Appreciate all the feed back. Just wanted to point out short term risks. I view it as a buying opportunity.   cheers to all.

[prem124]

I tried to add to my position but at the moment some of the UK brokers did not even validate Aris shares to be eligible for certain investment vehicles. I think we need guideline about dividend going forward, guideline on production plan and feasibility study for Toroparu.