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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Aris Mining Corp T.ARIS

Alternate Symbol(s):  T.ARIS.WT.A | CLGDF | ARMN | N.AMNG.NT.U

Aris Mining Corporation is a gold producer in the Americas. The Company is engaged in operating two mines with expansions underway in Colombia. The Segovia Operation is located in the Segovia-Remedios mining district in the department of Antioquia, Colombia, approximately 180 kilometers (km) northeast of Medellin. The Segovia Operations comprises four active underground gold mining operations... see more

TSX:ARIS - Post Discussion

Aris Mining Corp > ARIS seems so undervalued
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Post by challenger426 on Jan 25, 2023 12:47pm

ARIS seems so undervalued

I just crunched some numbers using the POG around $1900 and ARIS seems extremely undervalued.

2023 Forecasts include:

230,000-270,000 oz production
$1050 - $1150 AISC
$19M non sustaining CAPEX costs
136M shares outstanding
$1900/oz gold price

Using the above numbers on a worst and best case scenario, I get these share price forecasts:

$11.48  Worst Case
$15.47  Best Case

Each $100 change in the average price of gold can swing the needle in those scenarios by $1.50 - $2.00 in the share price value.  Therefore, even if the POG fell back to $1700/oz, ARIS is still undervalued by at least $3/share on a worst case scenario meaning they produce near the bottom of the range and the AISC comes in near the top of the range for 2023.
Comment by kkkrrr on Jan 26, 2023 2:49am
this is a valuation only based on production numbers... but ARIS devolopement-pipeline has a much bigger value ..    the vbest part is..they can develope all projects step by step without the need of extermal financings...   i hope not all warrants will be exercised -> less dilution of future profits... additional zo this i hope they will start repay the notes soon and ...more  
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