Post by
challenger426 on Jan 25, 2023 12:47pm
ARIS seems so undervalued
I just crunched some numbers using the POG around $1900 and ARIS seems extremely undervalued.
2023 Forecasts include:
230,000-270,000 oz production
$1050 - $1150 AISC
$19M non sustaining CAPEX costs
136M shares outstanding
$1900/oz gold price
Using the above numbers on a worst and best case scenario, I get these share price forecasts:
$11.48 Worst Case
$15.47 Best Case
Each $100 change in the average price of gold can swing the needle in those scenarios by $1.50 - $2.00 in the share price value. Therefore, even if the POG fell back to $1700/oz, ARIS is still undervalued by at least $3/share on a worst case scenario meaning they produce near the bottom of the range and the AISC comes in near the top of the range for 2023.