Aris Mining Corp T.ARIS.WT.A

The Vacuum Cleaner

[tobinator01]

Earlier I posted on the A series warrants.  Today these warrants were up 33% to close at 40 cents.  There was one buyer on the day:  RBC Capital Markets.  They vacuumed up 328,000 warrants.  That volume is the third highest in a year.  The A series warrants are richly priced at 40 cents and really should be in the 35 - 36 area.

I'm wondering if a fund intends on accumulating a large position of shares.  Warrants give a huge amount of leverage and allow the Vacuum to profit handsomely with a move higher.

[oldmanmike]

I am in agreement with you on the leverage of warrants from an investment standpoint. My preference is for the B series warrants....Strike price of $2.21/shr and current cost of $1.73/warrant giving an investment cost of $3.94/shr. My problem with the A series is 2 warrants + $5.50 equals 1 share. The current premium is, as you said, is $0.40 per warrant indicating a single share cost of $6.30

[rotax1]

as friday for 1.73  1x  B warrant  for  around the same money for 1.60  you have  4x  A warrant   at 10$ a share of aris  (10-2.21-1.73)  =                                                 6.06$  profit   

[oldmanmike]

Thanks Rotax1 for your post. I also have a considerable position in the B warrants.  Just like to mention current gold price is $1808 up $10 from friday. US$ index is at 104.21 down 0.29 and seems the way is clear for it to retrace to 98.....would make gold about $1900. Some of the things people don't talk about are, US trade imbalance, increasing interest costs on the $31.3T debt and

[tobinator01]

Warrants are call option leaps and are largely for trading not holding to the expiry.  Warrants purpose is leverage just like a call.  I looked at the B series warrants and they are painfully illiquid.  When a warrant or option is deep in the money they trade more 1 to 1 with the common stock.  Time premium is very limited.  The A series warrants are significantly below

[oldmanmike]

Agree with everything you've said. Risk management is the key. Call me an old lady! I fell better being. in the money now and having the opportunity to buy the A series with profits made on the B series. The A series will only trade on time value plus a limited opportunity premium untill it reaches closer to break even. Your senario assumes Aris gets to $8 and $2000 gold. We have to get there

[tobinator01]

Well said Mike. Wall Street and institutions love a sure bet.  Part of me wonders if there is going to be new analyst coverage with a strong buy recommendation or, some good chance Aris gets into the GDXJ index.  That would make any big fish a vacuum cleaner, with in reason, to gobble up leveraged instruments.  This is why there exists unusual call option whether it puts or calls

[rotax1]

aris is already in the gdxj    0.3 % of gdxj  so  4,205,773 share of ari sin gdxj https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/junior-gold-miners-etf-gdxj/holdings/