Post by
MyHoneyPot on Jun 15, 2021 3:46pm
Position of a Major Pop in Stock Price
ARC is putting forth a plan, with very prudent Capex plan relative to their future production profile. I am not sure if it really is possible, but we will soon find out, and we see the combined results of the 2nd quater.
A new enviroment exists where you can now hedge condensate/oil out until Dec 2023 at an average price of about greater than $65 dollars U.S (Add an extra Dollar for Condensate). That represents a condensate price of roughly, 80 dollars Canadian. 30 months for at at least 80 dollars average, well those are amazing number that support compelling economics.
Balance Sheet Objectives (2021)
Looking at Slide 9, ARC Presentaiton
The net debt objectives appear to be blown away, and the will have to add another blue bar for 70 dollar WTI, and perhaps one for 80 dollar WTI.
Rethink Opportunities
1/2 cycle opportunities, regardless of the declines could be paid for in 3-6 months, with certainity and if you were to put a 6 month head on every new well drilled there would be zero capital risk and no risk incremental production opportunities.
ARC is going to have balance sheet strenght, Liquids strength, and the best land base in the entire montny.
MAJOR WIN
A major win for ARC will be if their combined technical teams can solve the issues regard Kakwa decline, and convince management to bring on the 40,000 boe of less than 1/2 cycle opportunity they have there.
IMHO
Comment by
Grandcentral on Jun 15, 2021 8:48pm
I like the tone of this post MHP. We must all acknowledge their are many minds working alongside management. Arc is very well networked. Mac Van Wielingen is still strategically involved. Arc is a first class investment all the way. https://www.macvw.ca/