ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Attachie -

[Cheadle12]

MHP -

Keep in mind. Infrastructure is always valued.. and more so, when next door a pipeline requires 4 BCF/d of supply of dry gas is required for export.

So what does this mean for ARX?

They could sell Attachie turn-key for a premium to an LNG partner.. and shift focus back to their other assets.. think of what that would fetch?  40,000 boep/d liquids rich + dry gas for LNG + the plant / Pipelines other Infra..  a very nice piece of business indeed.  Certainly worth a lot more than the bare land sitting there doing nothing, costing money.  Correct?

or they could sell the whol company for a large premium to a super major.  I'm sure Shell would like to take out ARC, TOU is getting a little big now.

[MyHoneyPot]

It is Arc's priority i have trouble with.  Attachie is a long lead time 600 million dollar project that requires cash today. Pursuing Attachie would be ahead of share buybacks? Half cycle development at Kakwa? A meaningful dividend? and debt objectives. All these are higher priority in my opinion, because none of the assets are currently getting valued at all. In fact Attachie will not

[Cheadle12]

Very valid points. I was looking at Arc's price deck last night and they use $60 WTI & $2.60 HH.  We've been a lot higher than each of these for some time now and for the foreseeable future, so I'm not sure why they still have a $40 WTI and $2 HH column in there eating up one of the 3 spaces for sensitivities.   They mentioned that at 1x D/CF they will consider

[MyHoneyPot]

Cheadle12 - slide 34 If you look at slide 34 you see Net debt to FFO at pretty well an all time low and you see Dividends % of FFO paid to shareholders also at an all time low. I watch a presentation of the former management who stated that dividends should be 30% of FFO I estimate that Kakwa will be about 60% of the combined companies FFO. I think they should fill Kakwa, then with the surplus