ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

TOU is up 2.68

[MyHoneyPot]

ARC gains are weak and aligned with weak management. 


Lets pay off more 2% debt, Natural gas is 5.50 U.S. or about 42 dollars canadian a boe. Condensate is likely 74.50 or about 94 dollars canadian, and we are starving half cycle production gains, paying off 2 percent debt, and paying a high price for the hedges management put into place. 

IMHO

[uncutgems]

i am old enough to remember when you said dry gas was "worthless". that's a direct quote. you at various times actually thought tou would be in trouble for having so many "obsolete" gas plants. the reason tou is outperfroming, well there are numerous, but the main one is tou remained focused on being a NAT GAS PRODUCER, while Arx unfortunately doubled their share count

[MyHoneyPot]

I admit it, i thought gas was worthless, who would of predicted gas prices at these levels.  They should be to ARX advantage, at kakwa they have 1010 MMcf of gas processing capacity available, and if they have not sold off all their gas transmission yet, and they can ramp up their gas production from 443 MMcf last quater, they have tons of half cycle economic available. They should be

[Shaleguy]

Those long-term t service contracts are looking pretty darn good now with Nymex at 5.80 or almost 7 bucks Cdn whilst aeco is in the high threes. But yes the rest of vii management was terrible. Kawka still the best.

[uncutgems]

it has the highest netbacks. but terrible capital efficiency. rose always goes for capital efficiency OVER high netbacks. it's why of the scores of acquisitions he's done not one has been in that Alberta Montney region. but keep that in this little group. we wouldn't want just anybody to know what's in the TOU secret sauce.

[Shaleguy]

Uncut you are absolutely correct. The capital efficiency concept is recycle ratio. At 50 bucks Kakwa had a recycle ratio of 1.5 which is mediocre. At 90 dollars condy it's much much higher And yes a gas well with a recycle ratio of 2 is better than a recycle ratio of 1.5. In the vii got their capex down to 6.5 from 11.5 million under Holt.

[uncutgems]

yeah it seems to me kakwa prints money at these prices. not sure why they aren't more aggresive with it at the moment.

[Shaleguy]

Give me a few days and I'll estimate recycle ratio at current prices

[altagold]

Gas Hedges,   does anyone know how much gas ARC has hedged?  When the Hedges expire and  what the price is

[clamlinguine]

41% for the rest of this year, 31% next year, 15% 2023.

[GunnerG]

Sept Corp Presentation pages 28-31