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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Alternate Symbol(s):  AETUF

ARC Resources Ltd. is a Canadian energy company. It is focused on the exploration, development, and production of unconventional natural gas, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil in western Canada. Its operations are focused in the Montney region in Alberta and northeast British Columbia. Its operations in Alberta are located near Grande Prairie and the region includes Kakwa... see more

TSX:ARX - Post Discussion

ARC Resources Ltd > In Real Dollars ARC looks Good!
View:
Post by MyHoneyPot on Sep 30, 2021 9:54am

In Real Dollars ARC looks Good!

Q2 Actual TOU Numbers

Last quater in total TOU produced 35,524 boe of oil and condensate with a total production of about 410,339 boe. 

So for every 1000 boe of Prodution TOU would produce, 86 boe of oil/condensate

Combine ARC Forcast

Now if we look at ARC resouces they will produce 87,000 boe a day with a total production of about 350,0000 boe.

So for every 1000 boe of Production ARX will produce  249 boe of oil/condensate 

Prices for Analysis using current Prices

Gas AECO spot on Sept 28 is 3.40 condensate is 76.85 U.S. or about 97.50 canadian

Prices Spet 28

BOE Comparsion (ARC produces 3X oil and Condensate as TOU on a boe basis)

So for every boe of production ARC would produce $24.27 worth of oil/condy and TOU would produce $8.35 of oil and condensate. 

So every boe produce by ARC is worth $15.92 more than a boe in terms of oil and condensate then a boe produced by TOU this uses actual Q2 numbers. 

For Example
If you average price for gas is 3.40 AECO spot then a boe of gas is worth $20.40 + $8.35 condensate value = 28.75/boe. 

If ARX produces 350,000 boe and each barrel has a value of $15.92 more and gas is selling at $20.40 a boe pluse $8.35 for oil/condy. This esentially means that for every boe ARC produces it is worth about 1.55 boe's of TOU production. 

350,000 *1.55 = 543,808 boe of TOU equalivent gas production daily. 

Back of the napkin caculation, 3.40 AECO is a good local number, and condensate is alberta is spot price. Higher cost are associated with liquids production.  

In my humble honeypot opinion, outside of other balance sheet considerations, i believe ARC has a better production profile than TOU.

This analysis does not take into account hedging and Condensate is trading at a very good number but you get the idea here i hope..

IMHO
Comment by Beakr123 on Sep 30, 2021 11:23am
Thanks for the thorough post MHP. I'm excited to see what the quarterly report shows. Did you happen to get in contact with ARX and get some new information? 
Comment by uncutgems on Sep 30, 2021 12:55pm
why do you keep comparing ARX to TOU? without mentioning that TOU has been the better stock to own over the last 3mo 6m 1y 3y 5y and 10y years? and ARX chopped their dividend twice while tou raised thiers 7 times? and fail to mention that ARX has BILLIONS in debt and TOU has ZERO in debt? and fail to mention that ARX doubled their sharecount and tou kept their stable? that KAKWA wells are the ...more  
Comment by MyHoneyPot on Sep 30, 2021 2:32pm
Sorry uncut, but it time to get a grip on reality. ARC has the right dirt, and in area like Kakwa 58% liquids 35% condensate, what does TOU have that compete with that on the scale of 200-300 thousand boe a day. (Nothing, Zippo) the cupboards are bare.  Every boe that ARC produces, it take TOU 1.5 boe's to generate the same revenue. So if you divided the 410 thousand boe/day by 1.5  ...more  
Comment by uncutgems on Sep 30, 2021 6:06pm
more mumbo-jumbo KAKWA the most expensive DCET in north america bar none.... MHP has a bad case of TOURMALINE ENVY....
Comment by bagcheese on Sep 30, 2021 6:55pm
How is TOU even being compared to ARX? I've read all the little boy ARX posts trying to atm wrestle big pappy TOU and still only see nothing but false math and some ARX fan literally bragging today about a .02% difference in the closing price but yesterday ARX LOST 3x in share prices that TOU did.  Talk about celebrating nothing hahahahahahaha I suppose their used to it being ARX bag ...more  
Comment by BigJake on Oct 01, 2021 11:10am
Congrats a new addition to my ignore list
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