ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Hedging Q3

[MyHoneyPot]

WTI          = $70.55 U.S.
AECO      =  $3.60  Canadian
Nymex     =  $4.01  U.S.
Exchange= .78
Days            92
Royalities     10%

Oil 43,250 boe Hedge   ($51.21 U.S)     loss = $108,524,674 Can  Includes royalities
AECO 200,000 MMbtu  ($2.36 C$)        loss = $  25,097,600 Can  Includes royalities
Nymex 415,000 MMbtu ($2.85 U.S)       loss = $ 62,458,564  Can  Includes royalities

Total Hedging Losses Q3 = 196,080,838 Canadian dollars
Loss per share 725 million = 27 cents
Loss per boe of production (335,000) = $6.36 dollars a boe. 

Net Comodity prices after hedging - royalities

OIL         = $44.16 boe U.S., $56.61 canadian        =63%
AECO     =$2.00  boe Canadian                              =55%
Nymex    =$2.45 U.S. or $3.14 boe Canadian         =61%   (transportation not factored)

These are rough Q3 numbers and considering your getting 6.6 cents in dividends 27 cents a share in hedging losses is pretty expensive.

Q3 was 70.55 oil and the hedging loss including royalities is $21.27 boe

Quarterly hedging losses (Going Forward 2021 Q4)

80 dollars U.S. oil, 5 dollar Aeco and 5 dollar Nymex (q4 prices could be higher)

Heding losses = 320 million dollars, 44 cents a share, $10.40 a boe 

This makes your 6.6 cent dividend look real good.

IMHO

[angelnicky]

if this is true, then  ceo and cfo should step down immediately  watch the video , its discussing

[Quintessential1]

Wait for the actual numbers on the 3rd.   Good earnings with some debt reduction and a small increase to the dividend could make share price accreation worth it alone. Dr. Doom might have an agenda.

[MyHoneyPot]

I have agenda, it looking at real numbers and doing a real forecast with actual reported commodity price numbers that are in the public domain. Thats my agenda to be informed, to be knowledgeable regarding what is actually going on,  now it time for the cheer leaders to hang up their Pom Pom's IMHO

[kuchgold]

Hey honeypot I'll stick with the views of the analysts and investment deals and not some honeypot We'll see what happens to the stock price when the numbers and forecast for the next quarter is given But keep trying to give advice until then.

[robert41]

MHP if you were buying an energy producer today which one would you buy other than POU . I followed you on that forum and didn't buy it with regrets all though I bought others. I own Arc and have done well and pey but just above water there. Bir and crew are my largest holdings. I regretfully sold Wcp but did well there I,m considering moving my arc and pey back to Wcp their hedges in 2022 are

[Quintessential1]

Well I'm going to look at the actual numbers on the actual earnings report this week and make up my own mind on how they are performing.  I recommend everyone else here do the same.  Rah Rah! GLTA

[Beakr123]

Your agenda is probably drafted with a crayon, much like your one garbage napkin math.