ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Peer to Peer Analysis

[SideshowBob1]

Arc Q3

Total debt: 1.54B

Market Cap: 9.54 B

Enterprise Value: 11.08B

EV/BOE = $32,394/BOE

 

Production/Day:

Crude oil: 8149

Condy: 82,203

NGL: 50,891

Total Liquids: 141,243 bbls

NG: 1227mmcf = 204,500 BOE

BoE: 342,034

40% Liquids

 

 

WhiteCap Q3

Total debt: 2.05B

Market Cap: 6.75B

Enterprise Value: 8.8B

EV/BOE = $64,245/BOE

 

Production/day:

Crude Oil: 84,599

NGL: 14,863

Total Liquids: 99,462 bbls

NG:  225mmcf = 37,500 BOE

BOE: 136,975

72.6% liquids

 

ARX is only valued at 2.28B more than WCP. 

The market is pricing whitecaps BOE’s at DOUBLE those of ARX. 

ARX produces 41,781 bbl/day more liquids than WCP.

ARX produces 1BCF more NG than WCP!!!

ARX produces 205,059 more BOE than WCP.

 

Nuvista produces 68,000 BOE/day with an EV of 2.7B.

205,059/68000= 3.0 

Arc is over producing Whitecap by 3 Nuvistas.

 

If all BOE’s were equal Arx should be trading at an EV of 16.9B, market cap of 15.4B. Shave 1.4B of for being NG heavy. Give me a cap of 14B and Im happy. 46% upside from here. Price Target: $22.5. Still lower than RBC’s $26 target, but they are clearly out to lunch. 

 

[barneyj44]

Thanks for the slideshow Bob. Happy to hold Arc and Whitecap with  touch of Cpg, Suncor and Birchcliff for seasoning...

[rinagek]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[gossamer19]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[MyHoneyPot]

ARX management really can't think for themselves a listen to the likes of Eric Nuttal. They attached their destiny and #1 play opportunity (Attachie) to the Treaty8 nations, not really to smart.  Eric comes in, shows them his model and convinces you to put in place an aggressive NCIB, he wants it all he say, at least 75% of FCF should go to the NCIB. Then he produces another model for

[Quintessential1]

not really to smart.   -  seriously? Eric comes in, shows them his model and convinces you to put in place an aggressive NCIB, he wants it all he say, at least 75% of FCF should go to the NCIB He said he wanted 75% of FCF to go to shareholder returns and he didn't care which way.  It has been divided between buybacks and divy and will presumably continue that way for 2023.

[MyHoneyPot]

Really on the dumb side, misleading shareholder for amost two year on projects that would never be executed. How dumb is it to claim Attachie is you #1 prospect, and you can't get permits, you don't know what the working enviroment is going to be, and they still don't. Now you know you will be surface land restricted and you may have to redo your entire development plan.  This

[Quintessential1]

Every decision they have made has been dismal. <And look at me!  I just bought 15k more. I'm a genius!>  GLTA even this hypocrite

[MyHoneyPot]

Actually it ended up closer to 20K when all things were said and done.  The rookie management is not qualified to run this company is should be pretty obvious by now. The market is dumping on it, i personally don't have that kind of power over the market, the performance of the management is dismal.  Condensate Only This quarter just from the condensate hedges rolling off they