Post by
MyHoneyPot on Feb 03, 2023 10:51am
Perfect Entry Point
Really at $14.80 was a better entry point but ARX is dirt cheap here and the liability of all those horrific hedges are behind us.
Q4 is going to be an excellent quarter for both Gas and Oil, with WTI $82.50 for the quarter i believe we are going to see a new high with regards to FCF.
ARX has optionality with Liquids and Gas, and in Q4 Kakwa should benifit from the accelerated drilling they were doing as a result of NE BC license issues. They have raised the production target for Kakwa in 2023 and they should have a significant impact on revenue, and Kakwa is the cash engine for ARX.
ARX is significantly mispriced, most of the players in this liquids rich space, don't own their own facilities/Infastructure, and do not get the same opportunity for production tuning, field optimization, scheduling, transportation optionality etc.
ARX deserves a rerating, but the overhang of treaty8, it doesn't seem like ARX had as many well licenses in hand at TOU, who said they could drill for 3 more years without getting any more licesnse, i believe that TOU had over 300 well licenses in hand.
Now that their are new land use agreements i am not sure the impact on the Attachie project or if the land is already technically disturbed so they can proceed with the existing footprint.
The share price is like dirt cheap, table pounding buy.
Arx even though it has billions of dollars of infastructure it is trading at a gigantic discount to its peers, and 100% upside from here.
IMHO
Comment by
iwpete on Feb 03, 2023 11:17am
I kinda hope ARX tanks one more time. Wearing my tinfoil hat I figure that Brandon's minions will hold energy down for the state of the union address. And then.......
Comment by
WAS1 on Feb 03, 2023 11:48am
Agree MHP (my how you've changed) that this is under valued but when it's run by a management team that is more incompetent than the 7G crew, what can anyone expect? Kicking myself for not getting out in November.