ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

January Buybacks

[Trapped]

I don't have a link but ARX bought back 1.8M shares in January at an average cost of $16.82. Given the current SP, I'm glad they didn't buy more.

Maybe keeping some cash on hand for a dividend increase, special, or it's possible that they're hammering the remainder of the NCIB now, which wouldn't be a bad thing.

Looking forward to Q4 financials tomorrow. Cheers and GLTA ARX bulls.

[GunnerG]

ceo.ca/arc is a great site. Look under SEDI insider filings and filter on ARC      

[Quintessential1]

Yeah I am surprised at the low amount they bought back given previous amounts bought maybe the writing was on the wall for NG and SP dipping?  I hope they are buying back more in February and getting that NCIB down. Here is a hyperlink to that site for buybacks: https://ceo.ca/arx  Just click on SEDI INSIDER FILINGS on the left middle of the screen.  It auto loads GLTA ARX BULLS

[angelnicky]

when are they going to  cancel the buybacks to conserve cash its not helping the stock price put the money directly in the shareholders hands  with special div

[Quintessential1]

When they reach 500 Million shares.  EOY 2023. High share price only matters if you're selling. Alow share price is better for buying. GLTA ARX BULLS

[NothingBurger]

How do you figure they'll be at 500 million? Currently they are 620 and they bought 2 million in January.

[Quintessential1]

Well 500 million or EOY 2023 whichever comes first is when they will stop buying back. Will they be in the 500 million range?  Probably they bought back over 73 million shares last year. If they do the same this year they would be at 550 million shares at the end of 2023. They would have to almost double buybacks to get to 500 million by 2023 could they do that? I guess it depends on

[GunnerG]

Under the current NCIB, which expires Aug 31 2023, they can only bring it down to ~590M shares. Even 550M might be a stretch if they renew the NCIB.  

[Quintessential1]

Yes it's a stretch on a wish list. The more I think about Attachie the more I want them to leave it on the shelf until they have properly assesed the BRFN deal, give infaltion some time to ease off and see which way commidity futures are heading.  OPEC thinks O&G production is under supplied.  If that is true that should show up soon in commodity pricing even NG.  Even if

[Trapped]

Good points, Quint. The two things that will tank an E&P in this environment (in my opinion) are large acquisitions (i.e., dilution / debt, even if they're immediately accretive to EPS growth) and massive capital projects that won't pay off in the near term. The market just won't react well unless they're extremely well conceived, messaged and executed. I'm usually not one

[silkos]

Buyback tax does will apply starting Jan 1 2024 and is permanent. What events can reverse / remove it? Perhaps a balanced budget/debt sheet (not gonna happen anytime soon if ever), or in case of a total policy change / new government.

[Tothemoon2]

Doesn't the gas from Attachie go to filling Arc's requirement for Canada LNG.  If so Attachie won't be pushed back.

[Quintessential1]

I thought that was what the Sunrise expansion was for?   That cap-ex is in place and a go in the 2023 budget. GLTA ARX BULLS

[silkos]

Trying to make sense of these buybacks and it just amazes me how corporations always buy high volume at high prices yet there no activity when s/p drops. It's not only ARX. Go figure!

[Quintessential1]

Yeah I agree which is why I said I was surprised and I can only offer up a few thoughts for the possible reasons.   1 They spent most of their FCF on previous buybacks? 2. The limits on NCIB buybacks will not just let them wait to spend all of the FCF that they commited to return to shareholders in the very last month of the quarter so they have to start early. 3 When the share price

[GunnerG]

With all the stocks purchased, the divys saved on the repurchased shares could easily cover a nice bump in the dividend  Q4 should be exciting.   

[MyHoneyPot]

Glan to see you have come around to my way of thinking Trapped. Just don't start calling me honeybunny now! IMHO

[Trapped]

MHP, your 'way of thinking' changes every day. I buy high-quality names with stable/growing dividends, significant upside SP potential and I live off the proceeds. I'm never in a rush and believe less is more when it comes to trading activity. That said, I'm glad you're starting to see the merits of this E&P. Cheers and GLTA ARX longs. Tonight will be interesting.