Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Some TD accounts are wash trading

[lovehockey]

Clear wash trading patterns to me. There are no millions of shares sold @ 0.41 cents. Everyone is holding on to the shares.

[Mtklip]

I'm new to the stock. At what wti price would this stock be in trouble? What's the upside in 1-2 years if oil prices stay where we are.

[fellowship]

Welcome to the board. We are all waiting announcement about debt refinance , soon as we have we should be trading around .80  at current prices.  If their hedging is secured and price linger around $50-$55 still think they should be able to roll forward. What is the killer ? Oil at $40,  they will need to sell assets . 

[Mtklip]

thank you, and the refinancing announcement is coming in a few days am I right?.

[bosstrade]

Based on the amount crescent point paid for shell assets in Duvernay, a minimum of $1.40. 900 Mil - 200 Mil divide by 550 mill.

[cahclick]

dont forget to subtract ATH's net debt ($450 million). I get 82 cents    

[Mtklip]

if suncor is expected to double from here, what's the point getting Athabasca then?

[fellowship]

The point is their cash flow when oil above $65, it is exponentially increasing. Suncor you buy for divi. 

[Maxmoe]

Cash flow at ATH doesn't grow straight line at a 45 angle like SU, at $60 WTI it's growing  like a hockey stick. It's a "beast". Stock won't just double at 60, I like Eric's guess closer to $1. Now if we keep going, we will witness the wonder of debt aka leverage. If I round, the enterprise value is 225 +475 = $700 BUT if oil reserves value say doubles, well you

[Backinblack1000]

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[fellowship]

Thank you Bosstrade, but the wash trading going on is not normal so prefer a conservative approach right now. Yes your number better reflects the value. I am actually looking at $1.60 based on the reserves.

[Chris007]

Therefore, you can't really make an apples to apples type of comparison in regard to the Shell-CPG deal

[bosstrade]

Correct, not apples to apples. Shell's assets need $175 mill to maintain production of 30+ k barrels where ATH needs $75 mill. But if you take the diff between light and wcs its pretty much a wash per barrel  My opinion the assets that ATH has are superior if oil can hold above $55 wti

[Chris007]

Theres also the small fact that the Duvernay assets that CPG purchased is more than twice the size of the ATH-Murphy assets... 450,000 net acres vs 215,000 gross acres https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2021/shell-sells-non-core-canadian-shale-assets-to-crescent-point-energy.html There is no 30k of production in the Duvernay for ATH...like I alread pointed out, its a 30-70 joint

[ibribr2]

Look at Shell's acreage on a production map, the core is all drilled out. Only little inventory remains for next few years. Whereas Murphy/ATH land is still open with many years of drilling and many unbooked sections left

[Chris007]

There is still expected to be more than 10 years of inventory at current production rates for the Shell assets (2P reserves of 107.4 MMboe) As for the ATH/Murphy joint venture, reserves were last evaluated at 72 MMboe of Proved plus Probable Reserves The fact of the matter is no one is arguing that the Duvernay assets are not worth anything...However, comparing the ATH/Murphy assets it to

[Backinblack1000]

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[Godzillaman]

There are also the Montney assets that Athabasca operates at 70% wi that need to be factored in. I still think the metrics of those assets are as good or better than the Duverney assets on full cycle.  As for the reservoir quality, the previously thought moose pasture in the duv oil window to the north seems to be producing much better than initially foreseen (two creeks, northern kaybob

[Chris007]

Why would Montney need to be factored in? The whole conversation was in response to the hypothetical price the company's Duvernay assets could fetch if sold?

[bosstrade]

I was referring to all the assets. Was just making a point at how undervalued ATH is.

[bosstrade]

I was referring to all the assets. Was just making a point at how undervalued ATH is.

[Mtklip]

are they hedged beyond q2? Their hedges for Q1 don't look good.

[fellowship]

What are you talking about ? Because of these hedges they are exposed to current oil pricing.