Post by
lovehockey on Feb 22, 2021 3:56pm
Some TD accounts are wash trading
Clear wash trading patterns to me. There are no millions of shares sold @ 0.41 cents. Everyone is holding on to the shares.
Comment by
Mtklip on Feb 22, 2021 6:42pm
I'm new to the stock. At what wti price would this stock be in trouble? What's the upside in 1-2 years if oil prices stay where we are.
Comment by
fellowship on Feb 22, 2021 7:23pm
Welcome to the board. We are all waiting announcement about debt refinance , soon as we have we should be trading around .80 at current prices. If their hedging is secured and price linger around $50-$55 still think they should be able to roll forward. What is the killer ? Oil at $40, they will need to sell assets .
Comment by
Mtklip on Feb 22, 2021 7:42pm
thank you, and the refinancing announcement is coming in a few days am I right?.
Comment by
bosstrade on Feb 22, 2021 7:45pm
Based on the amount crescent point paid for shell assets in Duvernay, a minimum of $1.40. 900 Mil - 200 Mil divide by 550 mill.
Comment by
cahclick on Feb 22, 2021 8:15pm
dont forget to subtract ATH's net debt ($450 million). I get 82 cents
Comment by
Mtklip on Feb 22, 2021 8:17pm
if suncor is expected to double from here, what's the point getting Athabasca then?
Comment by
fellowship on Feb 22, 2021 8:21pm
The point is their cash flow when oil above $65, it is exponentially increasing. Suncor you buy for divi.
Comment by
Backinblack1000 on Feb 23, 2021 11:19am
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Comment by
fellowship on Feb 22, 2021 8:16pm
Thank you Bosstrade, but the wash trading going on is not normal so prefer a conservative approach right now. Yes your number better reflects the value. I am actually looking at $1.60 based on the reserves.
Comment by
Chris007 on Feb 23, 2021 12:42am
Therefore, you can't really make an apples to apples type of comparison in regard to the Shell-CPG deal
Comment by
bosstrade on Feb 23, 2021 7:20am
Correct, not apples to apples. Shell's assets need $175 mill to maintain production of 30+ k barrels where ATH needs $75 mill. But if you take the diff between light and wcs its pretty much a wash per barrel My opinion the assets that ATH has are superior if oil can hold above $55 wti
Comment by
ibribr2 on Feb 23, 2021 10:47am
Look at Shell's acreage on a production map, the core is all drilled out. Only little inventory remains for next few years. Whereas Murphy/ATH land is still open with many years of drilling and many unbooked sections left
Comment by
Backinblack1000 on Feb 23, 2021 11:13am
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Comment by
Chris007 on Feb 23, 2021 11:47am
Why would Montney need to be factored in? The whole conversation was in response to the hypothetical price the company's Duvernay assets could fetch if sold?
Comment by
bosstrade on Feb 23, 2021 12:04pm
I was referring to all the assets. Was just making a point at how undervalued ATH is.
Comment by
bosstrade on Feb 23, 2021 12:04pm
I was referring to all the assets. Was just making a point at how undervalued ATH is.
Comment by
Mtklip on Feb 23, 2021 3:21pm
are they hedged beyond q2? Their hedges for Q1 don't look good.
Comment by
fellowship on Feb 23, 2021 4:47pm
What are you talking about ? Because of these hedges they are exposed to current oil pricing.