Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

FCF at 100$ OIL

[ManitobaCanuck]

He everyone
  We have calcualted this companies FCF at 70$/80$ Oil .

With the new Goldman Sachs target of 100$ Oil , how much do u think their FCF will be ?

[Chris007]

Just some rough calculations, looking at their latest news release and March presentation Assuming unhedged, breakeven is 45 WTI, with each $5 increment provide approx. 70 million in cash flow 100-45=55 55/5 = 11 11 x 70,000,000 = 770,000,000 cash flow less approx 100,000,000 in projected capex (as per the news release...nutall's model assumes 80 mill in capex) so, approx 670 mill FCF

[fellowship]

And production figures will change accordingly. Way to go ATH . Congratulations . Our dream will come true. 

[ManitobaCanuck]

Hey Chris you are correct GS is predicting 80$ Brent , It JP Morgan guy Malek someone prediciting 100$ Oil . these guys keep revising their target and I hope GS will revise a 100$ target once we open up and summer starts . I have seen Lumber hit lifetime highs due to shortgage. Its also a commodity which is flexible depending on how much you extract from the forests . A similar shortage could see

[Chris007]

It'll be interesting to see how things play out on the US side. At current prices, it should be be quite attractive for the shale producers to hedge and start drilling again.  Strip prices for the next 12 months out are basically all solidly above $60. That being said, I guess the Texas deep freeze bought us some additional time to draw down inventories. Overall US oil rig counts were

[littledave55555]

don't get to excited about 80 dollar oil know that once it hits 80 dollars ,ath owes  a lot of money that has to be bad to some arabic country.....  in full, at 80 dollars

[littledave55555]

payed back lol 

[Chris007]

lol...what the hell does ATH have to do with the Arabs? What are you talking about? If you are referring to the royalty deal the company signed, as per pg.10 of the q4 md&a: In 2016 and 2017, Athabasca granted Contingent Bitumen Royalties on its Thermal Oil assets to Burgess Energy Holdings L.L.C. ("Burgess") for gross cash proceeds of $397 million. On April 28, 2020, Athabasca

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree ,shale could open taps but again the question arises will  they want to burn their profits by overdrilling or maintain discipline to get oil upto80-100$ to cover past years losses ? They should have got the lesson that increasing volumes with low margin is not good . Most of the shale drillers have not indicated increasing capex for drilling , but this might change

[mlcb2525]

Well I am thinking this time will be different. The clear message to Shale CEO's has been cash flow and investor returns. EOG stock got hammered when the CEO mentioned the possibility of increasing produciton 10%-15% during a conference call to discuss Q4 results. Shale companies will have to spend a lot of capital on just keeping production flat due to decline rates. They also drilled out a