Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Look at the fair value

[Nothingmatters]

Suncor currently has a p/e of 1400.. OBE 134... For NVA it is 1 and Ath is -2.34 Sometimes market mispriced things. But it does not take much time to correct them when the time comes. It is my opinion only.

[Nothingmatters]

Misprices****

[Chris007]

Thats why cash flow provides a much more accurate picture when comparing these companies...plenty of non-cash items included in accounting profits. Most notably, those huge asset write downs when oil initially tanked, last year in march. Obviously TTM p/e is going to look f ucked 

[Maxmoe]

OMG! You posted "thats" instead of "that's". You better issue a correction! Is that your "opinion only" or is this guaranteed, carved in stone?LOL.  

[Maxmoe]

So relax nothing. Grammar and spelling doesn't matter here. Yes P/E ratios are very volatile but also largely ignored because they are unreliable indicators.  

[Chris007]

...I suppose that "its my opinion", but I don't think its "ONLY MY OPINION"...cash flow vs accounting profits is pretty common practice  LOL

[Nothingmatters]

Thanks Chris and filefish for your inputs..

[Nothingmatters]

Lol thanks grumps, on a side note today ath is outperforming esi. Haha My oily hands.. unfuc*ly13

[filefish]

There is a good possibility of ATH's net asset value on the books  being re-written upward if oil prices stay above $65 for some time.. This alone will give the stock a re-rate. Look forward to seeing a done deal with the refi very soon.

[Maxmoe]

My estimate remains a $300 reversal of the prior write offs. Aka write up. Write up in NAV and book value, and reported earnings. It's only accounting just like the write off was,  but it does reflect an improvement in the borrowing base. PLUS, the bonds are $USD so there will be, by my estimate, $40 million improvement in the $cdn cost of debt vs a year ago. So easier to pay off the $usd

[fellowship]

The assets will not revaluate upwards. However the working capital will do just fine. Considering the tax pools credits waiting to be applied , I am all happy. 

[Backinblack1000]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[filefish]

I believe the borrowing capacity is based more on Reserves than the NAV of assets on the balance sheet. Last year ATH wrote off  the Hangingstone asset impairment to zero value. Obviously Hangingstone now has substantial value and as you suggest maybe a much as $300mil in potential Reversal. This would go a long way to improve the ratios of Debt to Equity from an investor standpoint. I think