Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

$72 + oil and only .85 cents

[MrICE]

Unbelievable that we are selling off this morning with $72 oil. 

investors are listening to all the noise and not looking at what is staring  them right in the face.

[ComradeKomissar]

I still can't get a feel of WHOMST these vaunted "investors" are. If it's in the hands of Bob and Doug Mckenzie, we're in the soup until the Generalissimos come.

[cahclick]

When ATH reached 60 cents a while back it faultered a few times and fell back to the high forties a time or two before charging on to 80 cents. If ATH can pay off ALL debt and buy back ALL outstanding shares in 4.2 years at $65 WTI then you should be able to sleep pretty good with oil bouncing around in the $70's. Is there risk ? Sure, but this is the best risk/reward scenario we've

[Chris007]

LOL...the buying back all shares part is for illustrative purposes...no publicly listed company can buy back all shares in 4 years...NCIBs basically max out at 10% per year Debt paydown is definitely a possibility though

[riski]

I think there is more at play here than you realize. The NVA refinance has to have sent a chill down the spine of all big investors in companies with debt coming due.  A refi at a higher rate than the debt it replaces indicates that they had trouble securing the funding.  It confirms that capital for the O&G industry is still scarce even at $70+ oil.  The NVA deal should

[Chris007]

I think you're reading a bit too much into it...most mid-small cap Canadian oil are getting hit pretty hard these last two days, regardless of their debt situation. That being said, generally speaking, the more leveraged the balance sheet, the higher the beta of the stock (both on the upside and downside)

[BizarroJerry1]

so what moves this stock in the other direction? Any predictions? Because all the people talking about ATH at $2 disappeared real fast. As for me, I rode this thing from .95 down to .11 and all the way back up again, and I'm furious at myself for not just getting out earlier and being thankful for getting my $ back.

[Chris007]

Like I stated last week, for commodity stocks, theres always plenty of people riding the momentum. As soon as the price appreciation of the underlying commodity stalls, plenty of these traders will jump ship. We've seen this story play out multiple times in just this year alone, check out the performance lumber stocks, copper stocks and gold stocks... Over medium-long term fundamentals win

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree with you Chris , momentum players are jumping ship  .This is something to hold till atleast TMX comes into the picture/starts operating  ,they have capacity booked  there . The stars seem to be aligning  and 2$ target remains if we see WTI at 70$ plus for next one year.

[churchofnutsacc]

ZOOM OUT. Again, ZOOM OUT. You probably need to ZOOM OUT some more. Were you expecting a straight ladder to $80 oil? Were you expecting ATH to go from $1 - $2 in a month? If you can't handle +/- 10% swings, you really should not be invested in oil. Financing at 7%, 8%, 9%, I don't really care because we are all looking at a floor price of $70 oil.  There has been NO CHANGE to the

[Todamoon18]

[ What moves the stock back up? LOL geez...apparently you held this from $.11 to $ 1...you should be able to figure it out. Personally I`m definitely in the $2 camp for obvious reasons!

[Nothingmatters]

I am in the $2 camp as well. I am a greedy boy, I topped up my tfsa and now my rrsp. I cancelled my Mexico August trip. Might have to satisfy myself with prince Edward island lol

[cahclick]

  I might be inclined to agree except there's blood everywhere  glta