Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Cash to pay off debt by early 2023

[Rational43]

Its too bad they financed the debt out so long, as they will have no need for debt financing much into 2023.  

At today's prices they are looking at $540M EBITDA for 2022. 
Less $190M for interest and depreciation, less ~ $100M CAPEX
that would spit out cash flow of ~ $250M

At lower prices in July they projected ending this year at $225M Net Debt, so that would show them roughly being debt free by end of 2022.  

Trading below 2 x EV / EBITDA.  I guess that's why Eric Nuttall's graphs always show ATH spitting out > 60% FCF for 2022, which is the highest of any on his tracking, with substantially less debt than BNE or MEG who are the only ones close.  

There is no higher leverage play to oil prices than ATH, with a Debt/EBITDA ratio much lower than understood by the market, who are dramatically underestimating their cash flow generation at these prices.

[ComradeKomissar]

There is no higher leverage play to oil prices than ATH, with a Debt/EBITDA ratio much lower than understood by the market, who are dramatically underestimating their cash flow generation at these prices.   I think Mr Market is underestimating the WTI. Everything is trading as if WTI is $60. So, that tells me Mr. Market expects a "floor price" of $60, wheras we are expecting