Post by
Maxmoe on Jun 06, 2022 1:22pm
Update highlight
For me, the biggy is free cash flow of $180 million in 2022 and $900 million total for 2022,23,24. Now, the juice. That forecast is using $85 wti AND a $5 increase in WTI = $45 million more FREE cash flow. Free is my favourite colour, favourite sandwich, etc. So, if WTI is $ 20 higher, at $105, the 2022 forecast FCF DOUBLES from 180 to 360. DOUBLE!! Now that's some torque. And the 3 year FREE cash flow would go from $900 million to 900 plus 45x4x3 = $1.44 BILLION in FREE cash flow. Not total cash flow, or ebitda. It's the free stuff. That's pretty close to 1X EV after we pass into net cash. If my rich buddy in Winnipeg would lend me a mere billion, I could lever that up and take ATH private, and pay that loan back, and all the corporate debt, in what? Three years? And have 97 years of production. FREE. My favourite grade oil.
Comment by
Maxmoe on Jun 06, 2022 1:27pm
I remember post Covid, November 2020, thinking and ranting about buying ATH at a 100% premium to the 11 cent stock price for about $100 million if only someone would lend me 99.5 million. Now it's a billion Id need but at $120 oil, it's even cheaper.
Comment by
ManitobaCanuck on Jun 06, 2022 1:53pm
I took your advise then and maxed my 250k LoC to buy Oil stocks...
Comment by
Maxmoe on Jun 06, 2022 2:39pm
"Free advice is seldom cheap". A quote I copied from a fellow stockhouse poster named "possibleidiot". I would NEVER borrow to buy any stock, especially not penny stocks. But congratulations.
Comment by
ManitobaCanuck on Jun 06, 2022 3:42pm
Agree 100% , DYOD and I knew that Athabasca was going to stay afloat becuase of hedges. I also uinvested in CVE, Suncor and Baytex .
Comment by
ManitobaCanuck on Jun 06, 2022 1:49pm
I wish I had a Billion . Would gladly lend it to you ... I wish I had invested more than the initial 154k when I bought Athabasca oil at 14 cents during the COVID19 days.