Post by
smallcaptdr on Jan 04, 2023 10:30am
On the road to $70 Oil
There is nothing bullish for Oil, not even a golden parachute to slow its fall. China is out and they're not coming back for months so Jan and Feb are a certainty that China won't be bullish and OPEC doesn't have their meeting till Feb so OPEC won't be saying anything bullish in the next few weeks and the economy is still heading towards a global recession so nothing bullish about that and Russia with their cap on Oil won't feel like they're missing out on higher Oil so they're not complaining and regardless of the reports Russia Oil is flowing strong selling Oil in the $50+ so when China does recover China will be buying cheaper Oil from Russia before paying our higher prices and Biden couldn't be happier with $70+ Oil after all months ago Biden came out and said that he would support Oil at $67 and will start an SPR refill program with $70 Oil but so far only a purchase of 3Mil barrels has been bought because a larger order would be bullish for Oil so Biden doesnt want that to happen and we know that its the US traders who seem to be relentless when it comes to pushing Oil lower which helps the US and even with Russia being predicted as delivering 500,000 bpd less Oil OPEC will take that inconsideration during their meeting so OPEC might not make another huge cut and if they do then we could start to hear about NOPEC wanting to relieve OPEC of its power and the headwinds for Oil are too strong keeping Oil under pressure. People seemed to think that a new calendar year would change everything turning Oil bullish but what's happening with Oil follows no dates and this is just a continuance of Oil selling off starting in June and $60+ Oil could be tagged with months of bearishness. But.. everything could change just not in Jan and I have been saying that by mid-year China could be back. Russia is also working on new trade routes that could help to increase delivery times since G7 cap so Russia will be increasing Oil production while saying that they are cutting production even using ghost ships to smuggle Oil so with new Oil production from Venezuela and additional production from other sources countries will have surplus Oil and Gasoline in 2023 with the FED saying that by 2024 things could be worse after hammering the economy with higher interest rates longer to bring inflation back to 2% and as inflation lowers its harder to shed % points we could run right into another crisis "Deflation" dragging out the recession till 2025 so this week is shaping up to being RED.
Comment by
Paray99 on Jan 04, 2023 11:00am
Today is your day.... BS'ers Day!